ABD\u2019de ISM \u0130malat \u00d6denen Fiyatlar endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta 82,1\u2019e gerileyerek piyasa beklentisi olan 85,5\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n imalat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in maliyet art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentilere g\u00f6re 3,4 puanl\u0131k sapma, girdi maliyetlerinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha yava\u015f y\u00fckseliyor olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Endeksin 50 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ise, anket kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun ay i\u00e7inde \u00f6denen fiyatlarda art\u0131\u015f bildirmeye devam etti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
ISM \u00d6denen Fiyatlar verisi 82,1 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek olsa da, beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalarak bu \u00e7eyrekte bir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ilk belirgin \u201cnegatif s\u00fcrpriz\u201d oldu. Bu durum, imalat\u00e7\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n nihayet zirve yap\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine dair bir sinyal. Bize g\u00f6re bu, Federal Rezerv\u2019in yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir kez daha agresif bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7eyi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in son \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r politika faizini (Fed Funds Rate) %4,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu veri Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu yumu\u015fatabilir. Benzer d\u00f6nemlerde\u20142022 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon so\u011fumas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi\u2014faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olduk\u00e7a h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, 2026 i\u00e7in ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle Eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m taraf\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde zorlanan hisse senetleri i\u00e7in destekleyici olabilir; S&P 500 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 ekside. Daha az agresif bir Fed, genellikle en \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve teknoloji hisselerini destekler. Olas\u0131 bir \u201crahatlama rallisini\u201d yakalamak i\u00e7in vadesi bir-iki ay olan Nasdaq 100 (NDX) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) y\u00f6nelmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
VIX endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen oynakl\u0131k, daha y\u00fcksek faiz korkular\u0131yla 20 seviyesi civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. Bu enflasyon haberi piyasa endi\u015fesini azaltarak volatilitenin gerilemesine yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirsizli\u011fin azalaca\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f ya da endeks \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019leri (put spread) k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Daha az \u015fahin bir Fed, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz farklar\u0131 darald\u0131k\u00e7a ABD dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131flama anlam\u0131na da gelir. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 106 seviyesinin \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlan\u0131yor; bu haberi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu senaryodan fayda sa\u011flayacak t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere bakaca\u011f\u0131z; \u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak gibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon sinyali: ABD ISM \u00d6denen Fiyatlar May\u0131s\u2019ta 82,1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferek 85,5 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi azalabilir. Hisse, VIX, DXY\u2019de y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47875"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47875\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}