Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nde S&P Global \u0130malat PMI May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 55,1 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek 55,3\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, beklentiyi \u0131skalasa da imalat faaliyetinde geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Rakamlar, piyasa projeksiyonlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprize i\u015faret ediyor. Man\u015fet PMI verisiyle birlikte ek bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131; ancak a\u00e7\u0131klanan endeks ile beklenti aras\u0131ndaki fark 0,2 puan oldu.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s imalat PMI verisinin 55,1 ile 55,3 beklentisinin hemen alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 daralma i\u015fareti olarak de\u011fil, ekonomik momentumda olas\u0131 bir zirve noktas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sapma, geni\u015fleme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in stratejide ayarlama gerektiriyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc piyasa trendlerine ili\u015fkin beklentileri t\u00f6rp\u00fclemeli; artan yatay seyir veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Fed politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc do\u011frudan etkileyerek Temmuz\u2019da agresif bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Nitekim fed funds vadeli fiyatlamalar\u0131 da buna g\u00f6re ayarland\u0131; ge\u00e7en hafta %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu sabah yakla\u015f\u0131k %45\u2019e geriledi. Bu nedenle, duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki bu de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n getirdi\u011fi belirsizlik (\u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa), portf\u00f6yde bir t\u00fcr koruma bulundurmay\u0131 temkinli bir tercih haline getiriyor. VIX\u2019in halen g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 15 seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, SPX \u00fczerinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir hedge stratejisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Haziran\u2019da beklenmedik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Getiri \u00fcretimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan S&P 500 \u00fczerinde call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7eneklerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Momentumun zay\u0131flama ihtimali g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6nemli yeni zirvelerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanacak bir ralli daha az olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n yatay hareket etti\u011fi ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoda gelir elde etmeye olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor imalat odakl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc de yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) i\u00e7in k\u00e2r revizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n son bir ayda yatay seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bu PMI okumas\u0131 olumsuz bir e\u011filimi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Geni\u015f piyasaya k\u0131yasla g\u00f6reli zay\u0131f performans beklentisiyle XLI \u00fczerinde put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2018\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00f6ng\u00fcye benzer \u015fekilde, uzun bir geni\u015fleme d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan PMI verilerinde zirve olu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman piyasalarda birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k konsolidasyonun \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor. Tek bir veri noktas\u0131na dayanarak sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemiyoruz. Ancak, net bir bo\u011fa pozisyonlanmas\u0131ndansa bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem (range-trading) stratejilerini \u00f6d\u00fcllendirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek bir piyasa i\u00e7in yeniden konumlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de S&P Global \u0130malat PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 55,1\u2019le beklentiyi \u0131skalad\u0131: Geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrse de ivme kayb\u0131 sinyali. Fed\u2019in Temmuz\u2019da agresif art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; hedge, range-trading \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. XLI bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47873\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}