ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilimler bir anla\u015fmaya varmadan s\u00fcrerken, alt\u0131n daha geni\u015f emtia sepetinin gerisinde kald\u0131; petrol ve baz metaller ise y\u00fcksek arz riskleriyle desteklendi. K\u0131ymetli metaller, man\u015fetlerin yak\u0131n bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131 (MoU) veya anla\u015fmaya i\u015faret etmesiyle ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi, ancak piyasa zemini enerji fiyatlamas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillenmeye devam etti.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, bir anla\u015fma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmay\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlarda destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini, bunun da k\u0131ymetli metaller kompleksi i\u00e7in makro r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131 ters y\u00f6nde tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu arka planda, alt\u0131ndaki CTA pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n bu hafta fiyatlar ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.750 dolara do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m (uptape) veya 4.480 dolara do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m (downtape) tetiklemedik\u00e7e genel olarak yatay seyretmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer emtialar\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira petrol ve sanayi metalleri devam eden arz risklerinden daha fazla faydalan\u0131yor. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ge\u00e7en hafta yeniden t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015fken, alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layan ko\u015fullar ortadan kalkm\u0131yor. Bu dinamik, k\u0131ymetli metallerin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in temel sorun, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin besledi\u011fi makro r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n ters y\u00f6nde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son ABD enflasyon verisi inat\u00e7\u0131 bir \u015fekilde %4,1 d\u00fczeyinde geldi ve Fed \u00fczerindeki politika faizini %5,75\u2019te tutma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tuttu. Bu \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz ortam\u0131, alt\u0131n gibi getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazibesini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bant hareketine i\u015faret ediyor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.480 dolar deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmad\u0131k\u00e7a veya 4.750 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131k\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu da, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen; \u00f6rne\u011fin out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) ve sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi stratejilerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, agresif merkez bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik riskleri g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na tavan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Piyasa net bir parasal gev\u015femeye ge\u00e7i\u015fi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayana kadar, bu makro bask\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k olu\u015fturmaya devam etmesini bekliyoruz. Belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mdan ziyade yatay seyre pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik tansiyon t\u0131rman\u0131rken alt\u0131n, petrol ve baz metallerin gerisinde kald\u0131. Enerji arz riski ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; TD, 4.480\u20134.750 dolar band\u0131nda yatay seyir bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}