Kanada\u2019n\u0131n S&P Global \u0130malat PMI verisi, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00f6nceki 53,3 seviyesinden 52,9\u2019a geriledi. Endeks 50,0 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek imalat ko\u015fullar\u0131nda geni\u015flemenin devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etti; ancak \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla daha yava\u015f bir tempoda.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s verisi, sekt\u00f6rdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme serisini uzat\u0131rken ivmede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir kayba da i\u015faret ediyor. Man\u015fet PMI rakam\u0131na e\u015flik eden ilave alt endeks ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 52,9\u2019a gerilemesi, h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde olsa da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme momentumunda belirgin bir zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu so\u011fuma, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) 10 Haziran\u2019daki faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu verinin, merkez bankas\u0131ndan \u015fahin tonda bir y\u00f6nlendirme gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki bu yava\u015flama, varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 74 dolara gerileyen WCS petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son zay\u0131fl\u0131kla birle\u015fince Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na pozisyon almak \u00fczere CAD\/USD paritesinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yumu\u015farken \u201cloonie\u201dye kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu durum, getirilerin daha da gerileyece\u011fi beklentisiyle 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Kanada H\u00fck\u00fcmeti tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi erken i\u015flemlerde 5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %3,85\u2019e indi ve bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
S&P\/TSX 60 endeksi cephesinde ise daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilece\u011finden g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale geliyor. Daha az agresif bir merkez bankas\u0131 destekleyici olsa da PMI verisinin, Nisan\u2019daki inat\u00e7\u0131 %2,9 enflasyon oran\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fmesi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, volatilitede art\u0131\u015f beklentisiyle endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeyi de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ana mesaj, Nisan istihdam raporunda 40 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gecikmeli veriler ile daha g\u00fcncel ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck PMI raporu aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma. Stratejimizi y\u00f6nlendiren daha yeni bilgi, imalattaki yava\u015flama. Daha g\u00fcvercin bir merkez bankas\u0131ndan ve potansiyel olarak daha zay\u0131f bir Kanada dolar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayacak i\u015flemleri \u00f6nceliklendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz so\u011fuma: Kanada S&P Global \u0130malat PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 53,3\u2019ten 52,9\u2019a indi; geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrse de ivme zay\u0131flad\u0131. BoC \u00f6ncesi \u015fahinlik azal\u0131yor; CAD bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir. Tahvil long, TSX straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}