Brent, 113 dolar civar\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir tepe yapt\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 103 dolar seviyesindeki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (50-GHO) alt\u0131na indi. Fiyat hareketi, Mart\u2019tan bu yana ge\u00e7erli olan y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisini test ediyor; 91\/90 dolar band\u0131nda destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma Nisan dip seviyesi olan 86 dolara do\u011fru bir hareketi g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. K\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsa da, Brent 103 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 50-GHO\u2019yu yeniden a\u015fmad\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler korunuyor.<\/p>\n
Haberde ayr\u0131ca, stoklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve piyasan\u0131n dengesizli\u011fi absorbe etme kapasitesinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoya da at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe Bernstein konferans\u0131nda konu\u015fan bir ABD\u2019li b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u015firketi, fiyatlar\u0131n Haziran\u2019a ve Temmuz\u2019a do\u011fru ralli yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130\u00e7erik, bir Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Brent\u2019i, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir tepeden geri \u00e7ekilip 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu kritik ortalama \u015fu anda 103 dolar civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Fiyat halihaz\u0131rda 91\/90 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011fini test ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, stoklar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fan\u0131yor ve bu durum piyasay\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalayabilir. Son EIA raporu, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 4,2 milyon varillik azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu rakam, beklenen 1,9 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn iki kat\u0131ndan fazla. Bu da resesyon endi\u015felerine ra\u011fmen fiziksel piyasan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik, fiyat 103 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece risklerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 91\/90 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 86 dolar b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru daha derin bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Bu ortam, daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak veya put spread kurmak gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmeyi g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle OPEC+\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca \u00fcretim disiplinini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini teyit etmesiyle, sert bir toparlanma ihtimalini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz. Fiyatlar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumunun t\u00fckendi\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir. Bu nedenle \u00e7evik yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 103 dolar direncine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 (short squeeze) hedefleyerek k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131ndaki sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; ekonomik talep endi\u015feleri ve s\u0131k\u0131 arz benzer \u015fekilde belirgin bir volatilite yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Z\u0131mni volatilite \u015fu anda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve piyasan\u0131n belirsizli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n mevcut banttan yak\u0131n vadede bir k\u0131r\u0131lma beklemesi halinde long straddle gibi her iki y\u00f6nde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten faydalanabilecek stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent\u2019te alarm zilleri: 113 dolardan d\u00f6nen fiyat 103 dolar 50-GHO alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. 91\/90 destek k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 86 g\u00fcndemde. Stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve OPEC+ disiplini ralli ihtimalini canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}