Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n S&P Global \u0130malat PMI verisi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 52,6\u2019dan 49,1\u2019e gerileyerek geni\u015fleme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50,0 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na indi. Son okuma, bir \u00f6nceki aydaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan imalat faaliyet ko\u015fullar\u0131nda bozulmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, \u015firketlerin daha zay\u0131f taleple kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00fcretim planlar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda \u00fcretim, yeni sipari\u015fler ve istihdam\u0131n ivme kaybetmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Endeksin daralma b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7mesiyle birlikte, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flaman\u0131n Haziran\u2019a sark\u0131p sarkmayaca\u011f\u0131na ya da ge\u00e7ici kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131na \u00e7evrilecek.<\/p>\n
Brezilya imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 49,1\u2019e sert d\u00fc\u015fmesini ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir negatif sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tek bir ay i\u00e7inde sa\u011flam geni\u015flemeden daralmaya ge\u00e7i\u015f, ivmenin aniden durdu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ikinci \u00e7eyrekte Brezilya sanayi \u00fcretimi ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz art\u0131k belirgin \u015fekilde daha temkinli.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki \u015fahin duru\u015funu sorgulat\u0131rken b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek amac\u0131yla ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle daha zay\u0131f bir Brezilya Reali beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131yoruz; USD\/BRL kurunun y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 5,30 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. USD\/BRL\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle ifade etmenin bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda, son bir ayda %4 gerileyerek 124.000 puan civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Ibovespa endeksi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in EWZ gibi geni\u015f piyasa ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bu t\u00fcr keskin PMI tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve hisse zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Daralma s\u00fcrprizinin piyasa belirsizli\u011fini beslemesi muhtemel. VIX Brazil endeksinin 28\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, hem kur hem de hisse opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131kta s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Y\u00f6n konusunda net olmamakla birlikte sert fiyat hareketleri bekleyenler i\u00e7in straddle gibi uzun oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak bir f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brezilya\u2019da PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 52,6\u2019dan 49,1\u2019e \u00e7ak\u0131l\u0131p daralmaya ge\u00e7ti: talep zay\u0131f, \u00fcretim ve istihdam ivmesi s\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Faiz indirimi beklentisi USD\/BRL\u2019yi 5,30 \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Ibovespa bask\u0131da, oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47864\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}