Avustralya\u2019da imalat aktivitesi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ivme kaybetti; PMI Nisan\u2019daki 51,3 seviyesinden 50,7 puana geriledi. Endeks b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011finin hemen \u00fczerinde kalsa da yeni sipari\u015fler ve ihracat sipari\u015fleri zay\u0131flarken maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Girdi maliyetleri yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 ikinci art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydederken, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fiyat enflasyonu A\u011fustos 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine h\u0131zland\u0131. Melbourne Institute\u2019un ayl\u0131k enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi ise, art arda iki ayl\u0131k ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s\u2019ta geriledi; bunda k\u0131smen akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Konut g\u00f6stergeleri de so\u011fudu. Ulusal konut de\u011ferleri May\u0131s\u2019ta de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez ayl\u0131k bazda yatay seyre i\u015faret etti; Sydney ve Melbourne\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler bildirildi. Piyasalar y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) en fazla bir ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Hanehalk\u0131 g\u00fcveni ve konut piyasas\u0131 momentumu, konut maliyetleri gerilemeye devam ederse daha temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya ekonomisinin belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; imalat ve konut sekt\u00f6rlerinde momentum kayb\u0131n\u0131n netle\u015fti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yumu\u015fayan veriler, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinde gev\u015feme ve konut piyasas\u0131nda yatay seyir, RBA\u2019n\u0131n daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planda Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n (AUD) k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu, \u00f6zellikle de merkez bankas\u0131 daha \u015fahin kalan para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flama riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin, ABD\u2019de son enflasyon verileri diren\u00e7li; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor ve bu da Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre \u015fahin kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\u2019yi USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda satmay\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, AUD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini opsiyonlarla ifade etmeyi de\u011ferlendirmeli. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k vadeli AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken Avustralya enflasyon verilerinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi durumunda riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejiler daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca ihracat kalemi olan demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi talebine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle ton ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc not ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r, para birimine y\u00f6nelik temkinli duru\u015fumuzu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda tam bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015ftan daha az\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. RBA\u2019n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 boyunca faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmada f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, swap piyasas\u0131nda sabit faiz alma (receive fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonla veya k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin yatay ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden fayda sa\u011flayan vadeli i\u015flemler (futures) \u00fczerinden ifade edilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Avustralya\u2019da fren \u0131\u015f\u0131klar\u0131 yan\u0131yor: PMI 50,7\u2019ye indi, sipari\u015fler zay\u0131f, maliyet ve fiyat enflasyonu y\u00fcksek. Konut yatayla\u015ft\u0131. RBA\u2019da son d\u00fczl\u00fc\u011fe girilirken AUD k\u0131r\u0131lgan; AUD\/USD put ve 2026\u2019ya receive fixed \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47862\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}