Hindistan rupisi, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) 95,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etmesinin ard\u0131ndan dengelendi; odak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc politika karar\u0131na kayd\u0131. Rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur seviyelerinin ard\u0131ndan 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Endonezya\u2019daki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015f da bu beklentiyi destekliyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak RBI, 2026 i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmete rekor 2,87 trilyon INR (30,1 milyar $) temett\u00fc transfer etti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n yurti\u00e7i faizlerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hindistan devlet tahvili (IGB) getirisi %7,00 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kaynaklar, RBI\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltmek yerine d\u00f6viz (FX) m\u00fcdahalesi ve dolar giri\u015flerini art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlarla INR\u2019yi savunmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ama\u00e7, para birimini desteklemek ve ithal enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak. Makro tarafta odak, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerde; 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 4\u00c7\u2019deki %7,8\u2019den y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,8\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re RBI, USD\/INR\u2019de 95,00 seviyesinde net bir \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d \u00e7izdi ve a\u011f\u0131r m\u00fcdahaleyle pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itiyor. Bu agresif ad\u0131m rupiyi \u015fimdilik istikrara kavu\u015fturdu; ancak piyasa, bu Cuma 5 Haziran\u2019daki politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde gergin. Buradaki temel soru, bu m\u00fcdahalenin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7en bir ara\u00e7 m\u0131 yoksa faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc m\u00fc oldu\u011fu.<\/p>\n
1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %6,8\u2019e gerileyece\u011fi beklentisi, RBI\u2019ye faiz art\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e veriyor; zira faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomik aktiviteyi daha da zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck: K\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde RBI, \u00e7o\u011fu kez b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleyip kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz rezervlerini kulland\u0131. RBI\u2019nin son a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriye g\u00f6re Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri 652 milyar $ ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyede; bu da m\u00fcdahaleleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in yeterli \u201cm\u00fchimmat\u201d anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi b\u00f6lgesel bask\u0131lar etkili olsa da, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ana enflasyon m\u00fccadelesi ithal enerji maliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131. Brent petrol, son \u00e7eyre\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 $\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rupi enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha do\u011frudan bir ara\u00e7 haline geliyor. Bu da RBI\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaktan ziyade kur y\u00f6netimini ve dolar giri\u015flerini \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemleri tercih edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131 da kendi belirsizli\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor: H\u00fck\u00fcmetin rekor temett\u00fc gelirine ra\u011fmen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %7,00\u2019de diren\u00e7li. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n halen enflasyon riskini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve RBI\u2019nin s\u00fcresiz \u015fekilde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fine ikna olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ile tahvil piyasas\u0131 hissiyat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki toplant\u0131n\u0131n \u201cikili\u201d risk profili (ya s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f ya g\u00fcvercin duru\u015f) nedeniyle, bizim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na pozisyon almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m. A\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/INR straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. S\u00fcrpriz 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, ilk etapta sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7abilir; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc FX s\u00f6ylemiyle desteklenen g\u00fcvercin bir \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d karar\u0131, rupinin 93,50\u2019ye do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi nefes ald\u0131: RBI, USD\/INR\u2019de 95,00 \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201dyi agresif FX m\u00fcdahalesiyle savunuyor. Cuma faiz karar\u0131 kritik; 25 bp ihtimali var. Rekor temett\u00fcye ra\u011fmen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %7\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47859\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}