Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden destek bulmas\u0131yla cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc kaydedilen ve iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olarak tan\u0131mlanan 4.600 dolar b\u00f6lgesinden geri \u00e7ekildi ve Avrupa seans\u0131nda 4.500 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na indi. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin diplomatik belirsizlik g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131rken; m\u00fczakerelerin ve mesaj trafi\u011finin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD\u2019nin taleplerinin sertle\u015fti\u011finin bildirildi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na girerken, \u00f6nerilerin Pakistan ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgesel arabulucular \u00fczerinden iletildi\u011fi; \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmesiyle jeopolitik risk priminin devrede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. <\/p>\n
Reuters, \u0130srail g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin 900 y\u0131ll\u0131k Beaufort Kalesi\u2019ni ele ge\u00e7irdi\u011fini ve Litani Nehri\u2019nin \u00f6tesine ilerledi\u011fini; bunun, \u0130srail\u2019in 2000\u2019de \u00e7ekilmesinden bu yana L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki en derin hamlesi oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. Ham Petrol, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparland\u0131; bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini besleyerek \u015fahin Fed beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisine ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporuna \u00e7evriliyor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc paralel kanal i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rken; MACD histogram\u0131 ivme kaybederken RSI 44 civar\u0131nda. Ay\u0131lar, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.411,29 dolar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 4.303,42 dolar\u0131 izliyor; diren\u00e7 ise 4.627,52 ve 4.628,82 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Jeopolitik gerilimler ve \u015fahin Federal Rezerv taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131, \u00f6nemli bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 107\u2019nin \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k bir zirveyi test etti; bu da dolar\u0131n birincil g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki konumunun, \u015fimdilik alt\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel rol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u015fahin Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, son verilerle de peki\u015fiyor. May\u0131s T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE), beklentilerin hafif \u00fczerinde y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ge\u00e7en ay 245 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporuyla birle\u015fince, piyasa bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor. CME FedWatch Tool, bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini \u015fu anda %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor; bu da do\u011fal olarak alt\u0131n gibi getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde tavan etkisi yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in put opsiyonu al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama etraf\u0131ndaki 4.411 dolar civar\u0131ndaki teknik destek dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, temmuz vadede yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.400 veya 4.350 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, \u00f6zellikle cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc NFP raporu \u00f6ncesinde, bu kritik uzun vadeli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fcz (outright) put al\u0131mlar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale geldi; Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ) 18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dip seviyelere g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek. Bu maliyeti dengelemek i\u00e7in bear put spread ba\u015flatmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir putun, \u00f6rne\u011fin kanaldaki destek b\u00f6lgesi olan 4.300 civar\u0131nda sat\u0131lmas\u0131; 4.400 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 uzun putun al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cy\u00fckseli\u015fleri satarak\u201d ifade etmek isteyenler i\u00e7in 4.628 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu seviyeyi, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama taraf\u0131ndan da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa baca\u011f\u0131 4.650\u2019nin \u00fczerinde olacak \u015fekilde call credit spread satmak, jeopolitik risklerin beklenmedik bi\u00e7imde azalmas\u0131 ve alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesi senaryosunda riski tan\u0131mlarken prim toplamaya imkan tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert d\u00fczeltme: Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 XAU\/USD\u2019yi 4.600\u2019den 4.500 alt\u0131na itti. Odakta ISM-NFP. Teknikte 4.411-4.303 destek, 4.628 diren\u00e7; put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}