Euro B\u00f6lgesi M3 para arz\u0131 Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,7 artt\u0131 ve piyasa beklentisi olan %3,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, tek para birimi blo\u011fu genelinde geni\u015f para arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen rakam ile beklenti aras\u0131ndaki fark, ekonomistlerin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan, son verinin konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. A\u00e7\u0131klama, euro alan\u0131ndaki likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin zay\u0131f M3 para arz\u0131 verisi erken bir sinyal niteli\u011findeydi ve ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin en son \u201cflash\u201d enflasyon tahmini %1,8 ile, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu tablo, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi\u011fini teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Para arz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve enflasyondaki bu kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 bir aksiyon bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. ECB yetkililerinden son d\u00f6nemde gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da daha g\u00fcvercin bir tona kayd\u0131; politika gev\u015femesinin masada oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Faiz indirimi beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle de\u011fer kazanacak EURIBOR\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyonlar, ECB\u2019nin yava\u015flayan ekonomiyi desteklemek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131na dair do\u011frudan bir bahis niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam euro a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumsuz. ABD ile faiz farklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a, May\u0131s sonlar\u0131nda kritik 1,0750 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015f olan EUR\/USD paritesinde ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. Euro aleyhine k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yoruz; b\u00f6ylece tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete maruz kal\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu kurgu, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dezenflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n belirginle\u015fti\u011fi 2014-2015 d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde ECB\u2019nin kayda de\u011fer gev\u015femesi euronun ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarihsel olarak M3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bir \u00e7eyrek boyunca %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB izleyen alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde nihayetinde faiz indirimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k; zira yava\u015flayan ekonomi \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz. Faiz indirimleri bir miktar destek sa\u011flayabilse de, uzun vadeli hisse pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 Euro Stoxx 50 endeksi \u00fczerine put opsiyonu alarak koruyoruz. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda resesyon endi\u015felerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 hedge imk\u00e2n\u0131 veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131fl\u0131k: Euro B\u00f6lgesi M3 Nisan\u2019da %2,7\u2019yle beklenti %3,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; likidite yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Enflasyon %1,8. ECB indirime zorlanabilir; EUR zay\u0131f. Long EURIBOR, EUR\/USD put, Euro Stoxx 50 hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47850"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47850\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}