Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI), piyasan\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yeniden alevlenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 izlemesiyle Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 89,40 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu seviye, ge\u00e7en haftaki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 dolar \u00fczerinde ve 89,00 dolar\u0131n yeniden \u00fczerine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019a ait askeri noktalara sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlerken, \u0130ran da bir ABD \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; Kuveyt ise f\u00fcze ve sald\u0131r\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u0130HA\u2019lar\u0131n engellendi\u011fini bildirdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak \u0130srail, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 ve Nisan ay\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkes y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olmas\u0131na, L\u00fcbnan ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda bu hafta g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler planlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Beyrut\u2019un g\u00fcney banliy\u00f6lerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 duyurdu. 1 Haziran 08:09 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan bir d\u00fczeltme, Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019nun \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 oldu\u011funu netle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Arz riskleri, k\u00fcresel ham petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in kritik bir rota olarak tan\u0131mlanan ve \u015fu anda fiilen kapal\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan yap\u0131lan sevkiyattaki aksamalara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Fiyatlar 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalsa da Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA), eri\u015filebilir ticari petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n Haziran ortas\u0131na kadar \u201coperasyonel stres seviyeleri\u201dne gerileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Brent ve Dubai Ham Petrol\u00fc ile birlikte \u00fc\u00e7 ana ham petrol g\u00f6stergesinden biri olan WTI, ABD kaynakl\u0131 hafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc (light, sweet) bir petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc olup Cushing terminali \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131yor; fiyat\u0131 ise arz-talep dinamikleri, jeopolitik kesintiler, OPEC kota kararlar\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 ve API ile EIA\u2019n\u0131n stok verileri taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekilleniyor. Kurumlar\u0131n verileri zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde birbirinden genellikle %1 i\u00e7inde sap\u0131yor ve OPEC 12 \u00fclkeden olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, daha fazla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. ABD, \u0130ran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, piyasan\u0131n ancak yeni fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler yarat\u0131yor. Mevcut momentumu, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
IEA\u2019n\u0131n rezervlerin Haziran ortas\u0131nda stres seviyelerine ula\u015fabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki uyar\u0131s\u0131, bizim i\u00e7in kritik bir kataliz\u00f6r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporuyla da destekleniyor: Raporda ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 4,2 milyon varillik azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, analistlerin beklentisi 1,9 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fiziksel arz\u0131n bu \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Volatilitede beklenen art\u0131\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski tan\u0131mlamak ad\u0131na al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alman\u0131n de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalardaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu hedefleyerek, 95 ve 100 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip call opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Bu opsiyonlar, bir vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesinin ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 tam maruziyet olmaks\u0131z\u0131n olas\u0131 sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan yararlanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde WTI fiyatlar\u0131 bir aydan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; gerilimin t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 durdurmamas\u0131 halinde benzer bir desenin tekrarlanabilece\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz. Tarih, bu t\u00fcr olaylar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve \u00f6nemli fiyat yeniden de\u011ferlemelerine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan gelecek haberleri yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; zira herhangi bir uzun s\u00fcreli t\u0131kanma, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini do\u011frudan tehdit ediyor. Bu Sal\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnleri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak API ve EIA stok raporlar\u0131, arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fip k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmedi\u011fini teyit etmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik g\u00f6stergeler olacak. Stoklarda bir kez daha kayda de\u011fer bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fiyatlar\u0131 bir sonraki diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde alarm: WTI 89 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde. ABD-\u0130ran-\u0130srail gerilimi ve fiilen kapal\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 arz riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. IEA stok stres uyar\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 95-100 dolar call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}