Almanya\u2019n\u0131n HCOB \u0130malat PMI endeksi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda piyasa tahminlerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 50,1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; beklenti 49,9 seviyesindeydi. Veri, geni\u015fleme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50 puan e\u015fi\u011finin yeniden \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130yile\u015fme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa da 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine ge\u00e7i\u015f, ay boyunca fabrika ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. May\u0131s sonucu, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalan beklentinin aksine, imalat g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden bir miktar daha sa\u011flam oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019da May\u0131s ay\u0131 imalat PMI verisi 50,1 ile beklentileri a\u015farken, geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret eden kritik 50 puan e\u015fi\u011fini de ge\u00e7ti. Bunu, iki y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Almanya\u2019da imalatta ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eden, d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 niteli\u011finde bir geli\u015fme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u00e7ekirdek ekonomisinde sanayi resesyonunun dip yap\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda DAX endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) \u00fczerinden Alman hisselerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenme pozisyonu almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak PMI\u2019\u0131n 50 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir seyir izlemesi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bir ralliye \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti; DAX\u2019\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde 18.600 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi de yeni zirvelere do\u011fru bir hareket i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r sa\u011flayabilir. Siemens ve Volkswagen gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck sanayi ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131nda iyile\u015fen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu Almanya verisi, euroya ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc do\u011frudan g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bunun, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde agresif faiz indirimlerine gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn piyasada hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Bu nedenle, mevcut 1,08 seviyesinden 1,10\u2019a do\u011fru bir hareket hedefiyle EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Alman devlet tahvili getirilerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131r ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirerek getirileri yukar\u0131 itebilir. Bu kapsamda, Alman 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften (getiride y\u00fckseli\u015ften) fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131 inceliyoruz; getirinin %2,65\u2019ten %2,80\u2019e do\u011fru t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bunun tek bir veri noktas\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve teyit gerektirdi\u011fini kabul ediyoruz. Ger\u00e7ek bir toparlanman\u0131n devreye girip girmedi\u011fini do\u011frulamak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan Almanya IFO \u0130\u015f Ortam\u0131 Endeksi ve Haziran ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) PMI verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Opsiyon stratejileri, bunun \u201csahte \u015fafak\u201d \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyele kat\u0131lmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz PMI Almanya\u2019da viraj sinyali: HCOB \u0130malat PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 50,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p 50 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131. DAX\u2019ta call, EUR\/USD long ve Bund\u2019da getiride y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47846\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}