Avusturya\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7,1\u2019e gerileyerek bir \u00f6nceki aydaki y\u00fczde 7,5 seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hareket, d\u00f6nem boyunca i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veri, \u00f6nceki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri al\u0131rken, i\u015fsizli\u011fin ayl\u0131k bazda 0,4 puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ilave bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avusturya\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u00fczde 7,1\u2019e gerilemesini, yurti\u00e7i ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dair net bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa ve \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda iyile\u015fmeye zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Avusturya odakl\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik olumlu bir e\u011filim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) de\u011ferlendirmelerinde \u00f6nemli bir yer tutacakt\u0131r. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son verileri, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u00fczde 2,8\u2019de sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2 hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Avusturya\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rarak, ECB\u2019nin bu yaz faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Avusturya Traded Index (ATX) \u00fczerine y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Endeks son bir ayda y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 3.850 civar\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ve bu haberin ek ivme sa\u011flamas\u0131 beklenebilir. ATX\u2019te ya da Erste Group Bank gibi ana bile\u015fenlerde Temmuz vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomi ve daha \u015fahin bir ECB dinami\u011fi, Euro\u2019ya da destek verebilir. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, i\u015fsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015ferken enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir para birimiyle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar kullanarak, Euro\u2019nun \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu makro veri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, belirsizli\u011fin azalmas\u0131yla Avusturya hisselerinde ima edilen volatilite (implied volatility) k\u0131sa vadede gerileyebilir. ATX \u00fczerinde put kredi spread\u2019leri gibi yap\u0131larla yak\u0131n vadeli volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak bir sonraki enflasyon verisini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz, bu e\u011filimi h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Avusturya\u2019da i\u015fsizlik May\u0131s\u2019ta %7,1\u2019e inerek piyasaya \u201ctoparlanma\u201d sinyali verdi: ATX ve banka hisselerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f, Euro\u2019da destek bekleniyor. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen istihdam ECB\u2019nin yaz faiz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47844"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47844\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}