Ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6viz pariteleri Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne Cuma kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yak\u0131n seviyelerde ba\u015flad\u0131; piyasalar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimlere ili\u015fkin haberleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamad\u0131. Dikkat daha sonra ABD takvimine \u00e7evriliyor: May\u0131s ay\u0131 ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Avrupa sabah saatlerinde USD Endeksi 99,00 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131da.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemilerin \u201cevlerine d\u00f6nmeye\u201d ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; olas\u0131 bir \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin nihai karar\u0131 vermek \u00fczere bir toplant\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Fars Haber Ajans\u0131 ise bu iddiay\u0131 reddetti. BBC, Pazar gecesi Trump\u2019\u0131n bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 (MOU) kapsam\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ve zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumun \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etti\u011fini bildirdi. Bu arada ABD ordusu, Goruk\u2019ta ve Ke\u015fm\u2019de \u0130ran\u2019a ait radar ve \u0130HA sahalar\u0131n\u0131 vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu da Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc misilleme olarak bir ABD hava \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Alt\u0131n, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 4.500 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru gerilerken; EUR\/USD 1,1650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc, GBP\/USD 1,3450\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutundu, USD\/JPY 159,50 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti. NZD\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,6000\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5970\u2019e gerilerken, AUD\/USD 0,7200\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na verdi\u011fi sakin tepki, riskin belirgin bi\u00e7imde yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k seviyeleri bu t\u00fcr stratejileri g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getirdi\u011finden, opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla korunma (hedge) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 buluyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kritik bir dar bo\u011faz (chokepoint) oldu\u011fundan, olas\u0131 yeni bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011frudan tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak d\u00fcnya deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bir petrol fiyat \u015foku riski y\u00fcksek. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelden maliyet etkin bi\u00e7imde faydalanmak i\u00e7in Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.500 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi, jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fin tarihsel olarak sermayeyi de\u011ferli metallere y\u00f6nlendirmesi nedeniyle uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor. Benzer \u015fekilde USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,50 civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seviyesi, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) hareketinde yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 oynamak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi \u015fu anda 99,00 civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 olsa da, durumun k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi halinde birincil g\u00fcvenli liman para birimi olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekliyoruz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi \u00f6nemli bir test olacak; S&P Global\u2019in son anketi ABD imalat \u00fcretiminin d\u00f6rt ay sonra ilk kez darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu nedenle zay\u0131f bir ISM okumas\u0131 \u201ckaliteye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d e\u011filimini h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu gerilimini \u201csakin\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor: b\u00fcy\u00fck yanl\u0131\u015flama kap\u0131da. G\u00f6zler ISM PMI\u2019da. Dolar endeksi 99\u2019da yatay, alt\u0131n 4.500\u2019e \u00e7ekildi; opsiyonla hedge, Brent OTM al\u0131m ve USD\/JPY sat\u0131m \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47843\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}