AUD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,7180 civar\u0131na geriledi; Ortado\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilimlerin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla 0,7200 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Guardian\u2019a g\u00f6re Kuveyt Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri, hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sirenleri ve \u00fclke genelinde acil durum uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hava savunma sistemlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmanca f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 engelledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD May\u0131s ISM \u0130malat PMI verisini izliyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD May\u0131s istihdam raporuna \u00e7evriliyor. Ekonomistler tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 96 bin artmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) yetkilileri, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n zaten y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyona ek bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 halinde faizlerin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Avustralya\u2019da ise beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan enflasyon ile i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f, Haziran ay\u0131nda Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fczde 13 olan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 3\u2019e indirdi. 1 Haziran\u2019da 07:13 GMT\u2019de d\u00fczeltme zaman damgas\u0131 yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Artan jeopolitik risk ve merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki devam eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, sermayeyi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD paritesinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri test etmesine y\u00f6nelik konumlanmak gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren ABD dolar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ihtimalini izliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f; bu da Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam raporundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak Fed\u2019in enflasyon konusunda \u015fahin kalmas\u0131na neden olabilmi\u015ftir. Son veriler, Brent petrol\u00fcn son bir ayda y\u00fczde 7\u2019yi a\u015fk\u0131n y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da enflasyonist g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda da zay\u0131f Aussie dolar\u0131 senaryosu g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Finansal piyasalar Haziran ay\u0131nda RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n fiyatlarken, yerel dinamiklerden para birimine destek olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. Demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131nda ton ba\u015f\u0131na 108 dolara gerilemeyle kaydedilen y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc daha da zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, AUD\/USD put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n en ihtiyatl\u0131 strateji oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 0,7000 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine zaman tan\u0131mak i\u00e7in vadesi Haziran sonu ve Temmuz olan opsiyonlara bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere kritik verilerde oda\u011f\u0131 korumak gerekiyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 150 binin \u00fczerinde beklenmedik derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rarak ay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc teyit edebilir. Pozisyonumuz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel risk ise Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ani bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi (de-eskalasyon) olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ortado\u011fu gerilimi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 vurdu, AUD\/USD 0,7200 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Fed \u015fahin sinyalli; petrol y\u00fckseliyor. Zay\u0131f Avustralya verileri RBA beklentisini s\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Strateji: AUD\/USD put, hedef 0,7000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47840\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}