{"id":47838,"date":"2026-06-01T08:59:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T08:59:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-ve-faiz-ayrismasi-ecbnin-faiz-indirimini-gundemde-tutarken-eur-usd-11650-yakininda-tutunuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T08:59:36","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T08:59:36","slug":"petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-ve-faiz-ayrismasi-ecbnin-faiz-indirimini-gundemde-tutarken-eur-usd-11650-yakininda-tutunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-ve-faiz-ayrismasi-ecbnin-faiz-indirimini-gundemde-tutarken-eur-usd-11650-yakininda-tutunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131ndaki D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve Faiz Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ECB\u2019nin Faiz \u0130ndirimini G\u00fcndemde Tutarken EUR\/USD 1,1650 Yak\u0131n\u0131nda Tutunuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan haftay\u0131 1,1650 civar\u0131nda tamamlad\u0131. ABD faizleri geriledi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisi %4,43 ile may\u0131s ortas\u0131ndaki zirvesinin 20 baz puandan fazla alt\u0131na indi. Ancak euro b\u00f6lgesi faizleri de d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in bu hareketin EUR\/USD FX swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Almanya, Fransa, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya\u2019dan gelen euro b\u00f6lgesi may\u0131s \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verileri (toplam\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019i) man\u015fette enerjinin etkisiyle h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret etti. Fransa, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya genel olarak beklentilerle uyumlu olurken, Almanya\u2019da b\u00f6lgesel T\u00dcFE a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. Takvimde; piyasa beklentisine paralel %6,2 gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen nisan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ve \u00f6nc\u00fc 51,4 seviyesini teyit etmesi beklenen nihai may\u0131s imalat PMI verisi bulunuyor. Ard\u0131ndan dikkatler sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc HICP\u2019ye \u00e7evriliyor; ABD\u2019de ise cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu \u00f6ncesinde hafta boyunca i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri izlenecek.<\/p>\n

Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve EUR\/USD Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

EUR\/USD \u015fu anda 1,0850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ana belirleyici faizlere ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fim. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri son d\u00f6nemde yeniden %4,50\u2019ye do\u011fru gev\u015fedi, ancak Avrupa devlet tahvillerinde de benzer hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu da paritenin \u015fimdilik g\u00f6rece dar bir bantta kalmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin may\u0131s ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verisi, %2,4 olan nisan seviyesinden %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek beklentilerin bir miktar \u00fczerinde geldi. Buna ra\u011fmen, rakamlar Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) izledi\u011fi patikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde endi\u015fe verici g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Piyasalar, ECB\u2019nin bu haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda\u20142019\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez\u2014faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Volatilite ve ECB\u2019de Gev\u015feme Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Bu hafta odak, ECB ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olacak. T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD istihdam raporunda; konsens\u00fcs, may\u0131s i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 180 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ancak ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc olmayan bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir veri, Fed\u2019in ECB\u2019nin aksine faiz indiriminde acele etmesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, EUR\/USD\u2019de ima edilen volatilitenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcndem i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k volatilite %5,5 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu seviye, merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda olu\u015fabilecek hareket potansiyelini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilir. Paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fi kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n

WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi de daha g\u00fcvercin bir ECB senaryosunu destekliyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri, enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ileride a\u00e7\u0131klanacak enflasyon verilerinin daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 gelmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131na gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sunarak orta vadede euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131, EUR\/USD dar bantta: ABD faizleri gerilese de Euro B\u00f6lgesi de e\u015flik ediyor. ECB\u2019de %90 indirim fiyatlan\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler ABD istihdam\u0131nda. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite putlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47838"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47838\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}