Almanya\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar Nisan\u2019da yeniden geriledi. Destatis verilerine g\u00f6re sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ferek piyasan\u0131n %0,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Mart ay\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da %0,3 geriledi; daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan %2,0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f verisi revize edilerek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltildi. B\u00f6ylece zay\u0131f t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131na i\u015faret eden verilerin serisi uzad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda perakende sat\u0131\u015flar %0,3 azald\u0131. \u00d6nceki okuma %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bu veri daha \u00f6nce %2,0\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften revize edilmi\u015fti. Piyasalar\u0131n tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131: euroda anl\u0131k bir hareket g\u00f6zlenmezken, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda EUR\/USD %0,04 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1655 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Nisan ay\u0131 Almanya perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri, t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda yava\u015flaman\u0131n devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentiden biraz daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa da, ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Bu e\u011filim, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinde t\u00fcketicinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 ciddi bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; son imalat PMI verisi de daralma b\u00f6lgesine i\u015faret eden 45,4 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Almanya\u2019da enflasyon da May\u0131s\u2019ta %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckselerek ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlu bir zemin olu\u015fturdu. Yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun birle\u015fimi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u00f6n\u00fcndeki patikay\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ECB\u2019nin bu ay planlanan faiz indirimine ilerlemekten ba\u015fka bir se\u00e7ene\u011finin kalmayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. S\u00fcregelen ekonomik yumu\u015fama, ilave politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal h\u00e2line getiriyor. Kalan y\u0131l i\u00e7in daha g\u00fcvercin bir ECB\u2019nin fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyerek, Euribor oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kur pozisyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Almanya\u2019daki bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k euro i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 1,15 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedefleyerek, temmuz ve a\u011fustos vadeli EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen benzeri Alman sanayi ve t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri, tek para biriminde kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performansla sonu\u00e7land\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yava\u015flama, \u00f6zellikle perakende ve t\u00fcketim \u00fcr\u00fcnleri sekt\u00f6rlerinde Alman hisseleri i\u00e7in de olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 DAX endeksi \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 makul bir korunma (hedge) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Artan belirsizlik piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fckseltebilir; bu da VSTOXX endeksinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli taktiksel bir se\u00e7enek h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zili: Almanya\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar Nisan\u2019da %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, PMI 45,4 ve %2,8 enflasyonla peki\u015fti. ECB faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 artarken euro ve DAX\u2019ta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 riskler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}