Almanya\u2019n\u0131n perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 geriledi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, beklentilerdeki %0,4\u2019l\u00fck azalmaya k\u0131yasla marjinal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veriler, ay i\u00e7inde t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi i\u015faret ederken, piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re hafif\u00e7e daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131klanan Almanya perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisini bir g\u00fc\u00e7 i\u015fareti olarak de\u011fil, beklenenden daha az sert bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Harcamalar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 daral\u0131yor olmas\u0131, Avrupal\u0131 t\u00fcketici \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Beklentilere kar\u015f\u0131 bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif s\u00fcrpriz, iyimserlikten ziyade temkinle de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
Bu tekil veri noktas\u0131, daha geni\u015f \u00e7aptaki sanayi yava\u015flamas\u0131yla da uyumlu. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n son imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 45,4 seviyesinde kalarak daralma b\u00f6lgesinde bulunmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu da zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n izole olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemin zorlu bir ekonomik tabloya i\u015faret etti\u011fini teyit ediyor. Bunun, ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, DAX endeksindeki olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli rahatlama rallilerini, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) satmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, prim geliri elde etmeyi sa\u011flarken, zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici taban\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalan\u0131r. Endeksin 18.800 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flamakta zorlanmas\u0131, belirgin bir diren\u00e7 alan\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ek olarak, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %2,5 civar\u0131nda inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde seyretmesi Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (ECB) zor bir konuma itiyor. S\u00fcregelen zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da para birimini zay\u0131flatabilir. EUR\/USD paritesinde olas\u0131 euro zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak, EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirerek pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak verilerin \u201ckorkuldu\u011fu kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc\u201d gelmedi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler, ima edilen volatilitede ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum, STOXX 600 gibi geni\u015f Avrupa endekslerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha makul bir maliyetle sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in taktiksel bir pencere sunar. Mevcut volatilitenin, ekonomik bozulman\u0131n devam etmesi riskini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Almanya\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar Nisan\u2019da %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklentiden iyi ama daralma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. PMI 45,4\u2019le zay\u0131fl\u0131k teyidi. DAX\u2019ta rallilerde OTM call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019de put, STOXX\u2019ta koruma penceresi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47835\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}