USD\/CHF, iki seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yeniden hafif y\u00fckselerek Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 0,7830 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin Nisan Reel Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, 1\u00c7 Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) ve May\u0131s SVME Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI) verileri \u00f6ncesinde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, ABD\u2019de fabrika ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin sinyal verecek Institute for Supply Management (ISM) \u0130malat PMI verisine de kay\u0131yor. Paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki geli\u015fmeleri izlemesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden destek bulan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ile desteklendi.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirecek \u00f6neride de\u011fi\u015fiklik istiyor; revizyonlar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin kurallar ve y\u00fcksek derecede zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumun kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Axios, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer materyalinin ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve bertaraf\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fartlar arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazarken, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir ABD\u2019li yetkili \u0130ran\u2019dan yan\u0131t\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcne kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak \u0130srail, alt\u0131 haftadan uzun s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ilan edilen ate\u015fkese ra\u011fmen L\u00fcbnan\u2019a daha fazla ilerlemek \u00fczere birliklere talimat vererek, \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah ile tansiyonu y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman giri\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 USD\u2019de s\u00fcrebilecek bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenen \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcre, belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir pencere yarat\u0131yor; bu da artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir ortam. Portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc korumak ve her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketlerden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla VIX \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz; VIX son bir haftada %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 24,5 seviyesinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
M\u00fczakerelerde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 bayrak. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu kritik su yolunda herhangi bir aksama, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda; Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli WTI ve Brent al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 normalde g\u00fcvenli liman olsa da, mevcut krizde k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelen talebin g\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131yor. Jeopolitik man\u015fetlerin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi halinde, yakla\u015fan \u0130svi\u00e7re makro verilerinin (GSYH ve PMI gibi) piyasa taraf\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmesi muhtemel. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8000 seviyesini test etmesini bekliyor ve CHF\u2019de k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 koruyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: USD\/CHF 0,7830\u2019de toparland\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re verileri \u00f6ncesi CHF zay\u0131f. ABD-\u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi ve L\u00fcbnan gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; 0,8000 testi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47825\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}