NZD\/USD, \u00c7in Verilerinin Bask\u0131s\u0131yla 0,6000\u2019in Alt\u0131nda Yatay; ABD G\u00fcndemi \u0130zleniyor<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 0,5975 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Yeni \u00c7in verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Kiwi zay\u0131f kalmaya devam etti. \u00c7in\u2019in RatingDog \u0130malat PMI verisi may\u0131sta 52,2\u2019den 51,8\u2019e geriledi ancak 51,4\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisini izlerken, haftan\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde oda\u011f\u0131n ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisine (Nonfarm Payrolls) kaymas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti. ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirirken, \u0130ran Washington ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ve mesaj trafi\u011finin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ancak net bir sonuca ula\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131 bir ba\u015fl\u0131kta, Fed\u2019in eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n politika anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle Fed yetkililerini g\u00f6revden alabilmesinin kamu g\u00fcvenine zarar verece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n may\u0131sta 96 bin olmas\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu sonu\u00e7lar dolar ve parite \u00fczerinde etkili olabilir. NZD ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ticaret, s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131 ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) %1\u2013%3 (orta nokta %2) enflasyon hedefi do\u011frultusundaki politikas\u0131 ile Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 faiz farklar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD paritesinin 0,5975 b\u00f6lgesi \u00e7evresinde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da \u00c7in ekonomisinden gelen karma sinyallerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son imalat PMI verisinin 51,8 ile geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yava\u015flamay\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde y\u00f6n tayini i\u00e7in oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z belirgin \u015fekilde ABD\u2019ye kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n kilit verisi cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu olacak. Piyasa yaln\u0131zca 96 binlik olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor; bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, son iki y\u0131lda g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilere k\u0131yasla ABD i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret edebilir. Zay\u0131f bir veri, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini daha erken de\u011ferlendirmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; bu senaryo ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz olur.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Yeni Zelanda taraf\u0131nda pariteyi destekleyebilecek baz\u0131 unsurlar bulunuyor. Son Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ihalesinde fiyatlar %1,8 artt\u0131; bu, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n temel ihracat kalemi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa pozitif bir katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca RBNZ, y\u00fcksek seyreden i\u00e7 enflasyona odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, \u015fahin RBNZ ile potansiyel olarak g\u00fcvercinle\u015fen Fed aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla Kiwi i\u00e7in daha elveri\u015fli bir zemin yaratabilir. Tarihsel olarak RBNZ\u2019nin faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in indirim beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, faiz fark\u0131 kanal\u0131ndan NZD lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu dinami\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda parite i\u00e7in ana belirleyicilerden biri olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Haftan\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki y\u00fcksek etkili ABD verileri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli NZD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n makul bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyon, ABD istihdam verisinin beklentiden belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131f gelmesi halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert harekete kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski opsiyon primiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Kiwi kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek risklerin de hesaba kat\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00c7in\u2019de toparlanman\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin s\u00fcrmesi veya Orta Do\u011fu geriliminde olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rabilir. K\u00fcresel piyasalarda b\u00f6yle bir \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d modu g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 destekleyerek NZD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kiwi 0,6000 alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: \u00c7in PMI\u2019daki yava\u015flama NZD\/USD\u2019yi 0,5975\u2019te bask\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler ABD ISM ve cuma NFP\u2019de; zay\u0131f istihdam Fed\u2019i g\u00fcvercinle\u015ftirip pariteyi destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47821\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}