WTI, \u00fc\u00e7 seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88,80 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve arz endi\u015felerinin artmas\u0131yla %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Hareket, \u0130srail\u2019in askerlere L\u00fcbnan\u2019da daha da ilerleme emri vermesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu, alt\u0131 haftadan uzun s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ilan edilen ate\u015fkese ra\u011fmen \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n dahil oldu\u011fu yeni bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yenilenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n daha geni\u015f ate\u015fkes \u00e7er\u00e7evesini uzatmak \u00fczere yak\u0131nda anla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Washington\u2019un \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ev sahipli\u011fi yapmas\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan gelmesi b\u00f6lgesel istikrar ve enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda olas\u0131 aksama endi\u015felerini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkesi uzatacak ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak bir d\u00fczenlemeye ili\u015fkin belirsizlik de s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hafta sonu her iki taraf, taslak anla\u015fmada de\u011fi\u015fiklik talep eden kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 \u00f6neriler payla\u015ft\u0131. BBC\u2019nin haberine g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019e ili\u015fkin kurallar ile y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumun zorunlu bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan daha sert \u015fartlar istiyor. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Washington\u2019la temaslar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ancak ancak net bir sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf da herhangi bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ran halk\u0131n\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi \u015fart\u0131n\u0131 koydu.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol 89,00 dolara do\u011fru ilerlerken, bizim i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca sinyal beklenen piyasa volatilitesinde keskin bir art\u0131\u015f. \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a ilerleyi\u015fi, piyasan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayda de\u011fer bir jeopolitik risk primini yeniden devreye sokuyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) halihaz\u0131rda 42\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayarak aylar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede belirgin fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgesel istikrara y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan tehdit dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. \u00d6zellikle Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli, 95-100 dolar band\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip kontratlara bak\u0131yoruz; bu, olas\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir yol sunuyor. K\u00fcresel toplam petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tehdit eden herhangi bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, bu seviyelerin rahatl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fclebilmesini sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Vadeli e\u011friyi de yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; e\u011fri, yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131n uzun vadeli olanlardan daha pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu backwardation yap\u0131s\u0131na do\u011fru daha da dikle\u015fti. Bu yap\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli arz eri\u015filebilirli\u011fine ili\u015fkin akut endi\u015feye i\u015faret ediyor; tarihsel olarak 2022\u2019de Rusya-Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk safhas\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir desen. En yak\u0131n vade ile alt\u0131 ay vadeli kontratlar aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n an\u0131nda teslimat i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek bir prim \u00f6demeye raz\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da, fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilecek ani bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge ediyoruz. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki s\u00fcren, ancak k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan diyalog, \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off) niteli\u011finde bir geli\u015fmenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Gerilimin beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesi h\u00e2linde sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bear put spread stratejilerini kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n ger\u00e7ek bir arz \u015fokunu absorbe edebilme kapasitesi de stratejimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir di\u011fer kilit unsur. OPEC+\u2019\u0131n kullan\u0131labilir yedek \u00fcretim kapasitesinin \u015fu anda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 3,5 milyon varilin alt\u0131nda tahmin edildi\u011fini not ediyoruz; bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 kesintilere kar\u015f\u0131 tarihsel olarak olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenlik yast\u0131\u011f\u0131. Anlaml\u0131 bir emniyet a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bulunmamas\u0131, b\u00f6lgeden fiili varil kayb\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki stok verileri kritik olacak; talep g\u00fcc\u00fcne ili\u015fkin sinyaller i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc EIA raporunu izliyoruz. Ge\u00e7en haftaki rapor, 4,2 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz bir stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; benzer bir rakam, mevcut jeopolitik ralliyi temel tarafta da destekleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, stoklarda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fini ge\u00e7ici olarak s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak yeni uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in daha iyi bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde alarm zilleri: WTI 88,8 dolara toparlan\u0131p %2+ y\u00fckseldi. \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi risk primini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; OVX 42+; 95-100$ call, hedge; backwardation keskin, EIA stoklar\u0131 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47816","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47816"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47816\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47816"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47816"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47816"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}