ANZ\u2019nin Avustralya\u2019daki i\u015f ilanlar\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda %1,8 artt\u0131; bu art\u0131\u015f, bir \u00f6nceki ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu hareket, Nisan\u2019daki gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan i\u015f ilan\u0131 faaliyetlerinde bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, May\u0131s\u2019taki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nceki daralmay\u0131 takip etmesiyle ayl\u0131k bazda belirgin bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine i\u015faret ediyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ilave bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m veya ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ANZ Job Ads verisindeki s\u00fcrpriz %1,8\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nisan\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan gelen bu toparlanma, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011finden daha s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, RBA\u2019n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu veri noktas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE\u2019nin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,6 seviyesinde gelerek hedef band\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, y\u00fcksek enflasyon anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam piyasas\u0131 tarihsel olarak \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar; bu da enflasyonun %2-3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6nmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Bunun, faiz indirimi ihtimalini daha da ileri bir tarihe \u00f6teledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz trader\u2019lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, RBA\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede gev\u015femeye gitmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlamalardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bankalararas\u0131 nakit faiz vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 da bunu halihaz\u0131rda yans\u0131t\u0131yor; piyasa, politika faizinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda %4,35\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima edecek \u015fekilde kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz ve bu y\u0131l faiz indirimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bahse giren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda bu geli\u015fme Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyici nitelikte. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) gibi di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 olas\u0131 bir duraklamaya i\u015faret ederken, \u015fahin bir RBA Avustralya dolar\u0131 (AUD) lehine uygun bir faiz fark\u0131 yarat\u0131r. AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz; parite \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda direnci k\u0131rarak daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6zellikle faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere yerel hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir bask\u0131 unsuru olu\u015fturuyor. Daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve de\u011ferlemelerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fundan, teknoloji ve gayrimenkul gibi sekt\u00f6rlerin g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Olas\u0131 hisse piyasas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in S&P\/ASX 200 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak gibi hedge stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz sinyal: ANZ Job Ads May\u0131s\u2019ta %1,8 artarak Nisan\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sildi. Bu, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir; AUD\u2019yi destekler, faiz hassas hisselere bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}