USD\/JPY haftaya daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131; Asya\u2019da 159,50\u2019ye do\u011fru toparlanarak ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n zirvesine yeniden yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu. Japonya\u2019da ilk \u00e7eyrek \u015firket sermaye harcamalar\u0131 yatay kalarak beklentilerin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,5 art\u0131\u015fa k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flad\u0131. Zay\u0131f i\u00e7 veriler, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 endi\u015feler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en enerji arz\u0131ndaki s\u00fcregelen aksakl\u0131klarla birlikte yeni \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, ABD dolar\u0131na olan talep de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki haftan\u0131n dibinden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u0130srail Savunma Kuvvetleri L\u00fcbnan\u2019da kara operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti; Binyamin Netanyahu, Hizbullah\u2019la m\u00fccadelede daha ileri gidilmesi i\u00e7in birliklere talimat verdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi de devam etti. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer anla\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmedi\u011fini ve \u00f6nerilerin Pakistan ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgesel arabulucular \u00fczerinden iletilmeye devam etti\u011fini belirtirken; anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Ham petrolde cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden gelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanma, enflasyon endi\u015felerini destekledi. Olas\u0131 Japon m\u00fcdahalesine ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylemler yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ISM \u0130malat PMI ile ba\u015flayacak ABD verilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
1 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla mevcut tablo, USD\/JPY\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trend olu\u015fturmas\u0131 i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsata i\u015faret ediyor. Zay\u0131f Japon yeni ile diren\u00e7li ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi, y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f; Japonya\u2019dan gelen zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler ve dolar\u0131 destekleyen kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimlerle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya ekonomisi yava\u015flama sinyalleri veriyor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son \u015firket sermaye harcamas\u0131 verileri, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermeyerek yatay seyretti. Bu, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki %6,5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye k\u0131yasla keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve yurti\u00e7i yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki enerji arz\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi de enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Japon ekonomisi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin %4,5 civar\u0131nda sa\u011flam seyretti\u011fini, Japon devlet tahvili getirilerinin ise %1,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dolar\u0131 tercih etmeye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir te\u015fvik yarat\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ABD\u2019de enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 beslerken, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu destekledi\u011finden bu fark\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede daralmas\u0131 da olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011finden de fayda sa\u011fl\u0131yor. L\u00fcbnan\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalan gerilim, piyasalar\u0131 tedirgin tutuyor. Bu belirsizlik, dolara talebi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek USD\/JPY kuruna ilave destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, parite 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. Japon yetkililerin, 2022\u2019de ve daha yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 2024 bahar\u0131nda kur 155\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, para birimlerini desteklemek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7mi\u015fi bulunuyor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 resmi sat\u0131\u015f tehdidi, sert ve ani bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyerek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu unsurlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n en temkinli strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritede 160-162 band\u0131na do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Call opsiyonu stratejisi, Japon yetkililerin beklenmedik bir m\u00fcdahaleye gitmesi halinde \u00f6nemli kay\u0131plara kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY Asya\u2019da 159,50\u2019ye toparland\u0131: Zay\u0131f Japon verisi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji riski ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. 160 e\u015fi\u011finde m\u00fcdahale riski nedeniyle call opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47813,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47814\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}