EUR\/USD, iki seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gerileyerek Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,1650 civar\u0131nda seyretti. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla birlikte piyasalar h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerleyen ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini izliyor. Parite, ye\u015fil banknotun \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d \u00f6zelli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik talebin s\u00fcrmesiyle zay\u0131flarken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanabilecek gerilim riski de euronun k\u0131sa vadeli cazibesini bask\u0131lamaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeye y\u00f6nelik bir teklifte de\u011fi\u015fiklik talep ediyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin kurallara ve y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumun \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor. Axios ise Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer malzemesinin ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve bertaraf\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha s\u0131k\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmler istedi\u011fini ekledi. \u00dcst d\u00fczey bir ABD\u2019li yetkili, \u0130ran\u2019dan yan\u0131t\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcne kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda Fransa, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya\u2019da May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon y\u00fckselirken Almanya\u2019da geriledi; t\u00fcm\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. ECB tutanaklar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131smi deste\u011fe ve 11 Haziran\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklentisine i\u015faret etti. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi Nisan Almanya Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut EUR\/USD zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 1,1650 civar\u0131nda do\u011frudan jeopolitik gerilimin bir sonucu olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu durum parite i\u00e7in klasik bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor: dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ile \u015fahin bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n etkileri kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geliyor. D\u00f6viz Volatilite Endeksi ge\u00e7en hafta %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek artan belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde ana riskin ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden gelebilecek olumsuz bir man\u015fet oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak \u2014 \u00f6rne\u011fin 1,1600 civar\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla \u2014 diplomaside bozulma senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu senaryoya y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019de Rusya-Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi olaylarda benzer g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131yla dolar endeksi birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan 11 Haziran\u2019daki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131, euro a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc niteli\u011finde. Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonu son olarak %2,6 seviyesinde raporlan\u0131rken, gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %90 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme, paritede sert bir toparlanmay\u0131 beraberinde getirebilir. Bu potansiyel geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in ECB karar\u0131n\u0131n sonras\u0131na tarihlenmi\u015f al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve z\u0131t kuvvet g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, salt y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bahis yapman\u0131n riskli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Daha iyi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, beklenen volatilitenin kendisini i\u015flem konusu yapmak olabilir: Haziran sonuna vadeli bir straddle veya strangle sat\u0131n almak. Bu strateji, ister diplomatik bir ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k ister \u015fahin bir ECB s\u00fcrpriziyle tetiklensin, fiyat\u0131n herhangi bir y\u00f6ne kayda de\u011fer hareket etmesi durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD, Asya\u2019da 1,1650\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri g\u00fcndemde. Jeopolitik riskler euroyu bask\u0131larken, \u015fahin ECB beklentisi destekliyor; volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47806\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}