S&P 500, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc son saatte %0,1 y\u00fckselerek \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme yolunda kald\u0131. Endeks 20 May\u0131s \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcnden bu yana 7.353\u2019ten rekor seviye olan 7.599\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131; ancak Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Romanya\u2019daki bir apartman binas\u0131na drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fine dair haberlerin NATO \u00fcyesi bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f jeopolitik riski art\u0131rmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i erken kazan\u0131mlar zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Endekse Dell Technologies ve NetApp\u2019teki sert hareketler destek verdi. NetApp, mali d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek k\u00e2r beklentilerini a\u015ft\u0131 ve gelir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti; \u015firketin mali 2027 gelirinin orta noktas\u0131n\u0131 7,45 milyar dolar olarak (mali 2026\u2019daki 6,93 milyar dolara k\u0131yasla) \u00f6ng\u00f6ren rehberlik payla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Barclays hedef fiyat\u0131n\u0131 134 dolardan 199 dolara y\u00fckseltti. Dell, tam y\u0131l beklentilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; \u015firket, orta noktada toplam 167 milyar dolar gelir i\u00e7inde mali 2027 yapay zek\u00e2 sunucusu gelirini 60 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc ve mali 2027 ilk \u00e7eyrek gelirinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %88 art\u0131\u015fla 43,8 milyar dolar oldu\u011funu bildirdi. Teknik analistler ayr\u0131ca endeksin 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 7.060 civar\u0131nda, \u00f6nceki direncin ise 7.000 b\u00f6lgesinde bulundu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasa kritik bir kav\u015fakta: S&P 500, \u00fcst \u00fcste yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 7.599 ile t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Teknolojideki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fcce ra\u011fmen bunu agresif iyimserlikten ziyade temkin zaman\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Dell ve NetApp gibi hisselerde yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 rallinin piyasay\u0131 ayakta tutan temel g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Philadelphia Yar\u0131 \u0130letken Endeksi (SOX), yaln\u0131zca May\u0131s ay\u0131nda %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek yapay zek\u00e2 ile ili\u015fkili her \u015feye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde geri \u00e7ekilmelerde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, endeksin Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya temas etmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle piyasan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak endeks, kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n bu denli \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde s\u0131kl\u0131kla %5-8\u2019lik bir d\u00fczeltme izleniyor. Bu nedenle, sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla SPX \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Romanya\u2019daki drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131ndan kaynaklanan yeni jeopolitik risk, piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6rmezden geliyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ciddi bir kataliz\u00f6r. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 dip seviyelere yak\u0131n 12,8 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131; bu da opsiyon bazl\u0131 sigortan\u0131n \u015fu anda ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 derecede ucuz oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Volatilitenin potansiyel olarak s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce koruyucu pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bunu net bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yapay zek\u00e2 temelleri ile artan d\u0131\u015f tehditler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller nedeniyle, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren S&P 500 straddle stratejisi cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, piyasada ya belirgin bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ya da bekledi\u011fimiz sert d\u00fczeltmenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ana tetikleyicimiz 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama olmaya devam ediyor; bunun 7.450 civar\u0131nda bulundu\u011funu hesapl\u0131yoruz. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bahisleri art\u0131rma sinyali olacakt\u0131r. Bu senaryoda ana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hedef, 7.060 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rekorlar s\u00fcrerken alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor! S&P 500 7.599\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; Dell\/NetApp ve yapay zek\u00e2 rallisi destekliyor. Ancak Romanya\u2019daki drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 jeopolitik riski art\u0131rd\u0131; VIX dipteyken put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}