Alt\u0131n, \u0130ran ile ABD\u2019nin ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzatacak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere olanak tan\u0131yacak bir anla\u015fmaya yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa dair haberler sonras\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. XAU\/USD, 4.489 dolardan toparlanarak 4.563 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kaynaklar, anla\u015fma sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Reuters \u0130ranl\u0131 bir kayna\u011fa dayanarak siyasi bir mutabakata var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak bunun hen\u00fcz nihai hale gelmedi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Petrol de paralel \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131; WTI %1,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferken, bu hareket enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu so\u011futarak daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri, ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Ortabat\u0131 faaliyetinin yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; Chicago PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 49,2\u2019den 62,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek 50,5 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %2\u2019den %1,6\u2019ya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize ederken, Fed\u2019in \u00e7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (Mart: %3,2). Faiz beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fti; piyasalar yakla\u015f\u0131k %42 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n 4.500 dolar\u0131 yeniden geri ald\u0131; diren\u00e7 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.588 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 4.600, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.630 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.798 seviyelerinde bulunuyor. Destek ise 4.450, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.399 ve 4.366 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki son s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tipik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinden ziyade, de\u011fi\u015fen faiz beklentilerine bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ihtimali petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor; bu da Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir ortam, getiri sa\u011flamayan bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim tahvil piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131d\u0131: ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri bu hafta 15 baz puan gerileyerek %4,35\u2019e indi. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %42 olarak ima ediyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta neredeyse %70 seviyesindeydi. Bu fiyatlama, jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Fed\u2019den daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f bekledi\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam ve ISM verileri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Veriler zay\u0131f gelerek Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de ge\u00e7ece\u011fi fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirse, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n ETF\u2019leri veya vadeli kontratlar \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu alman\u0131n, riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, anlat\u0131n\u0131n aniden de\u011fi\u015fmesi halinde olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, tablo ak\u0131\u015fkan oldu\u011fu ve Fed yetkililerinden kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. Ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa veya May\u0131s istihdam raporu beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 yeniden h\u0131zla y\u00fckselecek ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde anl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. 4.500 dolar seviyesinin net \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f hamlesinin sona erdi\u011fine dair sinyalimiz olur.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik risk priminin ortadan kalkmas\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 tamamen merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131na yeniden odaklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer \u00f6rnekler g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ortado\u011fu geriliminin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde alt\u0131n\u0131n nihai y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesinden ziyade Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc belirledi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay bu dinami\u011fin yeniden devreye girmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca bu trendi teyit etmek i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destekleyici r\u00fczg\u00e2r olur. DXY\u2019nin 104,20\u2019deki son destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki diren\u00e7 hedefinin 4.588 civar\u0131ndaki hareketli ortalama oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz y\u00fckseli\u015f! ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi beklentisi petrol\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken alt\u0131n %1,5\u2019ten fazla art\u0131p 4.563$\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %4,35\u2019e indi, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %42\u2019ye geriledi. Teknik diren\u00e7 4.588$. Destek 4.450.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}