GBP\/USD, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi ederek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Parite yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 1,3460 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ve haftay\u0131 genel olarak yatay tamamlamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Reuters, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda bir \u201csiyasi mutabakata\u201d var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak bunun hen\u00fcz nihai hale getirilmedi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Haber, iki taraf\u0131n mevcut ate\u015fkesi uzat\u0131rken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak \u00f6nerilen 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddialar\u0131n\u0131 takip etti.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir mutabakat ihtimalini, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca kataliz\u00f6rlerden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130yile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131 genellikle, jeopolitik \u00e7alkant\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015ften ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan hamle, paritede volatilite satmak; zira nihai bir anla\u015fma, opsiyonlara fiyatlanan risk primini b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker. GBP\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite, bu hafta i\u00e7inde %11\u2019in \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,5 seviyesine kadar geriledi ve bir anla\u015fman\u0131n teyit edilmesi halinde y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 olan %7\u2019ye do\u011fru daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2015\u2019teki JCPOA anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz volatilitesinin birka\u00e7 ay boyunca gerilemesine benzer bir paterne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in call spread\u2019ler kullanarak dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sterlinde temkinli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc tercih ediyoruz. Bir anla\u015fma, temelde risk-on bir tablo yarat\u0131r; bu da dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurarken sterlin gibi k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini destekler. Mevcut momentumun korunmas\u0131 halinde parite \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,3600 seviyesini hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 da kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Brent petrol, bu haberlerle birlikte %6 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89 dolara geriledi; kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte dezenflasyonist bir etki yaratacakt\u0131r. Bu durum, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de son \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 verisi %4,1 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmi\u015f olsa da, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, en g\u00fcvenilir stratejinin volatiliteyi satmak oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; zira sterlinin y\u00f6n\u00fc, yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon endi\u015feleri nedeniyle bir miktar bulan\u0131k. GBP\/USD i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patika, zay\u0131flayan dolar nedeniyle muhtemelen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da, ima edilen volatilitedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha kesin bir sonu\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yeni ve anlaml\u0131 pozisyonlar eklemeden \u00f6nce mutabakat zapt\u0131na ili\u015fkin resm\u00ee do\u011frulamay\u0131 takip edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran \u201csiyasi mutabakat\u201d ihtimali risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 canland\u0131rd\u0131: GBP\/USD 1,3460\u2019a toparland\u0131, hafta yatay. En net f\u0131rsat volatilite satmak; 1 ayl\u0131k IV %11\u2019den %8,5\u2019e indi, teyitle %7\u2019ye yakla\u015fabilir. Sterlinde temkinli y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in call spread; hedef 1,3600. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa Brent d\u00fc\u015fer, dezenflasyon BoE \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47768"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47768\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}