GBP\/USD cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir siyasi uzla\u015f\u0131 konu\u015fulmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyelerinden s\u0131\u00e7rayarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Parite 1,3460 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken haftay\u0131 genel olarak yataya yak\u0131n kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Reuters, ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 \u00f6nerisine ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan, bir \u0130ranl\u0131 kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rarak anla\u015fmaya var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak nihai hale getirilmedi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Ayr\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda Donald Trump, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah hedefinden vazge\u00e7mesini talep ederken, bo\u011faz\u0131n iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in har\u00e7s\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Daha yumu\u015fak ton ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratarak Sterlin\u2019i destekledi; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesi 99,54\u2019\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 98,80 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi; WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86 dolar civar\u0131nda ve be\u015f ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelmi\u015f durumda, ancak sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 enflasyon risklerini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Politika oda\u011f\u0131 enflasyon ve faizlerde kald\u0131: BOE\u2019den Andrew Bailey ekonomideki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ve sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ederken, Kansas City Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jeff Schmid daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 bir duru\u015f ihtiyac\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. Gelecek haftan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri ve ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP), i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren \u0130stihdam Raporu yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalini k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir \u201crisk azalt\u0131c\u0131\u201d geli\u015fme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130lk etki petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilme oldu; WTI ham petrol may\u0131sta yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 gerileyerek Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk ayl\u0131k kayb\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131. Bu durum, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131rken, \u0130ngiliz sterlini gibi para birimlerinin toparlanmas\u0131na alan a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiliz sterlinindeki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenme k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilir; zira \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) daha temkinli bir duru\u015fa d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fkan Bailey ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan belirgin \u015fekilde endi\u015fe duyuyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, 48,9 ile \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde daralmaya i\u015faret eden son S&P Global\/CIPS Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Bile\u015fik PMI verisiyle de destekleniyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Banka Faizi\u2019ni %5,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yan BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u015fimdilik sona erdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), inat\u00e7\u0131 seyreden y\u00fcksek enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 ile Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Fed yetkililerinden gelen \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu artan ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirecek ba\u015fat tema olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, petrol piyasas\u0131nda volatilitenin gerileyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca jeopolitik risk unsurunun zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte, CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek seviyelerden geri \u00e7ekilebilir. Volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanan stratejilerin \u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde straddle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2014 daha cazip hale gelebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran haberlerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 rahatlama etkisi da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda GBP\/USD paritesinde altta yatan bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir harekete opsiyonlarla pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin 1,3300 seviyesinin alt\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak. Bu, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar ve daha durgun bir Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik beklentiye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftaya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu kritik veri noktas\u0131 olacak. Piyasa beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 190 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu teyit edebilir ve dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. D\u00f6viz ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda bir sonraki ana hareketin tetikleyicisi olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu raporu yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik yumu\u015fama sterlini destekledi: GBP\/USD dipten toparlan\u0131p 1,3460\u2019a tutundu. Ancak BoE temkinli, Fed \u015fahin; petrol gerilese de risk s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. G\u00f6zler PMI ve NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47766\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}