Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Truth Social\u2019da ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u201cnihai karar\u0131\u201d vermek \u00fczere Durum Odas\u0131\u2019na gitti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi ve tamamlanm\u0131\u015f bir pakt\u0131 and\u0131ran \u015fartlar s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yeni zirvesini 51.050 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu \u015fartlar aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silaha \u201casla sahip olmamay\u0131 kabul etmesi\u201d, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlama olmaks\u0131z\u0131n \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc sevkiyat i\u00e7in \u201cderhal a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d olmas\u0131 ve \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti olmamas\u0131\u201d, kalan may\u0131nlar\u0131n \u201cetkisiz h\u00e2le getirilmesi\u201d, ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 900 pound y\u00fcksek derecede zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumun \u201c\u0130MHA ED\u0130LMES\u0130\u201d yer ald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019li yetkililer arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla aktar\u0131lan taslak mutabakat metni; 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131na, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde kademeli yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na, ablukada ad\u0131m ad\u0131m geri \u00e7ekilmeye ve uranyum stokunun tasfiyesine dair 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019na yak\u0131n \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, \u201ctamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u201d \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lan metinle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini belirtirken; devlet yay\u0131nc\u0131s\u0131, son 24 saatte H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den 24 geminin yaln\u0131zca izinlerle, belirlenmi\u015f rotalarda ve belirli zamanlarda ge\u00e7ti\u011fini bildirdi ve izinsiz giri\u015fin \u201csert bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k\u201d do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Gerilim s\u00fcrerken Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde Kuveyt\u2019e balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatt\u0131; f\u00fcze engellendi. IRGC, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Bandar Abbas sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ABD hava \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fcn vuruldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Hazine, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti plan\u0131nda herhangi bir rol\u00fc olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde Umman\u2019a yapt\u0131r\u0131m tehdidinde bulundu. Makro veriler de zemini s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131: \u00e7ekirdek PCE y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e, man\u015fet PCE %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken Chicago PMI 50,6 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 62,7\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Teknik tarafta endeks 51.000\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 test etti ve \u00fczerinde tutundu; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 49.250 civar\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 47.550\u2019ye yak\u0131n izleniyor. K\u0131sa vadede 5 dakikal\u0131k Stoch RSI 80 \u00fczerinden 60\u2019a do\u011fru geriledi. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler 51.000\u2019de destek, ard\u0131ndan 50.500 ve 50.000; diren\u00e7 taraf\u0131nda 51.500\u2019e do\u011fru bir alan telaffuz edilirken Fed konu\u015fmac\u0131lar\u0131 Schmid, Bowman, Paulson ve Daly takvimde yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ile jeopolitik ger\u00e7eklik aras\u0131nda belirgin bir kopukluk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dow\u2019un 51.000 \u00fczerindeki rallisi, hen\u00fcz var olmayan olas\u0131 bir \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dayan\u0131yor; bu da k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ger\u00e7ek bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi (2015 JCPOA gibi) petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak Brent petrol\u00fcn 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede ger\u00e7ek bir anla\u015fman\u0131n gelece\u011fine inanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi rallisi ile jeopolitik ger\u00e7eklik aras\u0131ndaki bu bo\u015fluk, yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f riske i\u015faret ediyor; bunu opsiyonlarla i\u015flem konusu yapabiliriz. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131labilecek 14 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte rahat oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Biz bunu ucuz maliyetle korunma alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; anla\u015fman\u0131n bozuldu\u011funa dair herhangi bir i\u015faret, VIX\u2019in \u00f6nceki b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 25-30 band\u0131na do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa ayr\u0131ca hisse senedi piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 gereken \u015fahin ekonomik verileri de g\u00f6rmezden geliyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu %3,3 seviyesindeyken ve Chicago PMI g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmi\u015fken, Fed\u2019in faiz indirmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok az gerek\u00e7e var; \u00fcstelik Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz indirimini fiyatlamaya devam ediyor; veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc desteklemiyor. Bu da endeks \u00fczerindeki uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle riskli h\u00e2le getiriyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferlemeleri daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli stratejimiz, Dow\u2019da 51.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olma ihtimaline pozisyon almak. 51.000\u2019in alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip put spread\u2019leri al\u0131yoruz; bu, anlat\u0131n\u0131n da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve endeksin 50.500 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi h\u00e2linde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getiri elde etmeyi sa\u011flayan bir y\u00f6ntem. Bu, piyasan\u0131n iyimser ve man\u015fetlerle y\u00f6nlenen duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 taktik bir hedge.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ana kataliz\u00f6r ekonomik takvimden \u00e7ok haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacak. \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 ile iki taraftan gelecek resm\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, iyimser anlat\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fen unsurlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Anla\u015fman\u0131n somut bi\u00e7imde reddedildi\u011fine dair bir mesaj veya yeni bir asker\u00ee hadise, bu rallinin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyebilir; bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar bu i\u015flem i\u00e7in en etkili ara\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dow 51 bin \u00fcst\u00fcnde rekor tazeledi; Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 mesaj\u0131 ralliyi k\u00f6r\u00fckledi. Ancak taslak 60 g\u00fcn ate\u015fkes, kademeli H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 diyor. Brent 90+, VIX 14: risk yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor. Put spread \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47759,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47760","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47760"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47760\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47760"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47760"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47760"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}