ABD hisse senedi endeksleri rekor b\u00f6lgesindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Dow, S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100\u2019e kat\u0131larak yeni zirveler g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu tablo, Wall Street\u2019i ay baz\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kazanca do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; Brent ve WTI her ikisi de varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasalar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da Fransa ve Almanya T\u00dcFE verileri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda geldi; ancak b\u00f6lge genelinde enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 ECB\u2019nin hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Odak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftaki ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisine; bunun yan\u0131nda fabrika sipari\u015fleri ile imalat ve hizmet PMI\/ISM okumalar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
ABD hisselerinde yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rallinin devam\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bo\u011fa duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Nasdaq 100 bu ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 y\u00fckseldi; rekorlar\u0131n tazelendi\u011fi bu ortamda QQQ gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji endeksleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131l\u0131m i\u00e7in bir yol sunuyor. Bu momentumun hazirana g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; fiyatlar daha ge\u00e7en ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken gerilemi\u015f durumda. Bu senaryoya, ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na bakarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz; yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n teyit edilmesi halinde fiyatlar 80\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilebilir. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite \u015fimdiden d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; bu da piyasan\u0131n daha sakin bir jeopolitik ortama fiyatlama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftan\u0131n ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu, geni\u015f piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli k\u0131sa vadeli kataliz\u00f6r konumunda. Mevcut uzla\u015f\u0131 tahminleri yakla\u015f\u0131k 190 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu, Fed\u2019in olumlu kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya denk geliyor. Verinin her iki y\u00f6nde de s\u00fcrpriz yapma ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, S&P 500 \u00fczerinde straddle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; bu yap\u0131, veri \u201cfazla s\u0131cak\u201d ya da \u201cfazla so\u011fuk\u201d gelse de piyasan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketinden faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc iyile\u015fiyor ancak ECB i\u00e7in endi\u015fe konusu olmaya devam ediyor; Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde son okuma %2,8 seviyesinde. Gerileme olumlu olsa da, muhtemelen merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine y\u00f6neltecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yeterli de\u011fil. Bu nedenle Avrupa hisse endeksleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131, y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almaktan ziyade a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Wall Street rekor tazeliyor: Dow, S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, AI r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 teknolojiye al\u0131c\u0131 getiriyor. Petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m beklentisiyle gev\u015fiyor; g\u00f6zler ABD istihdam verisinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47756\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}