Alt\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc toparland\u0131; XAU\/USD, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 4.366 dolara geriledikten sonra 4.583 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi ve Axios\u2019un, ate\u015fkesi uzat\u0131p H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir mutabakat zapt\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran konusunda \u201cnihai bir de\u011ferlendirme\u201d yapmak \u00fczere Durum Odas\u0131\u2019nda toplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 iyile\u015fti; ancak Tasnim, anla\u015fman\u0131n ne nihai h\u00e2le getirildi\u011fini ne de do\u011fruland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Geli\u015fmelerle petrol zay\u0131flarken, WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti ve be\u015f ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyreden ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonu g\u00fcndemde tutmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130yile\u015fen risk alg\u0131s\u0131yla para politikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131; DXY, per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesi 99,54\u2019\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 98,80 civar\u0131na indi. \u015eahin Fed mesajlar\u0131\u2014PCE verileri ve %2 enflasyon hedefiyle peki\u015fen\u2014\u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz beklentisini desteklerken, alt\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne do\u011fru ilerlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger SMA olan 4.587,97 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda yer al\u0131rken, \u00fcst bant 4.761 dolara ve alt bant 4.414,50 dolara yak\u0131n seyrediyordu; RSI 48\u2019e, ADX ise 24\u2019e yak\u0131n olup konsolidasyona i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u00fcksek belirsizlik g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem yap\u0131labilecek en do\u011frudan teman\u0131n volatilite oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) ge\u00e7en hafta \u015fimdiden %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde anlaml\u0131 bir harekete fiyat bi\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015f\u0131p ula\u015fmamas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak her iki y\u00f6ndeki b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2015\u2019teki JCPOA anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden s\u00fcreci and\u0131r\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde nihai anla\u015fman\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ay WTI ham petrol\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 gerilemi\u015fti; bu da jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesinin enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlayabildi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde fiyatlar, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 100 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7ok daha az net; bu da bant i\u00e7i stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 destekleyici olsa da, jeopolitik riskteki e\u015fzamanl\u0131 azalma ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. XAU\/USD\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.400\u20134.800 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan iron condor gibi stratejilerle prim satmay\u0131 temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu, alt\u0131n\u0131n potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam edecek. Son \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyon verisi olan %4,1, Fed\u2019in hedefinin iki kat\u0131ndan fazla; bu da politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gerek\u00e7eler veriyor. Y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, getiri sa\u011flamayan alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rarak, korunma arac\u0131 olarak cazibesini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 da benzer bir \u00e7eki\u015fmenin i\u00e7inde: iyile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, y\u00fcksek faiz beklentileri destekliyor. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, DXY\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6nsel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f almada bizi temkinli tutuyor. Bunun yerine, mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131 hedge etmek veya k\u0131sa vadeli hareketlere y\u00f6nelik taktik i\u015flemler yapmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlara bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2013\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 beklentisiyle alt\u0131n dipten d\u00f6nerek 4.583 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, dolar geriledi. Petrol zay\u0131f ama enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Belirsizlik OVX\u2019i s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131; opsiyonda volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47752,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47753\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}