USD\/CAD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n daha \u00f6nceki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla geriledi; zay\u0131f Kanada b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerine ra\u011fmen Kanada Dolar\u0131 toparland\u0131. Parite, ABD seans\u0131nda daha \u00f6nce 1,3829\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3780 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair beklentiler, Greenback\u2019e y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltarak ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) alt\u0131 ana para biriminden olu\u015fan sepet kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden 99,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na itti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, ate\u015fkesi uzat\u0131p H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak \u00f6nerilen 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir mutabakat zapt\u0131na (MOU) nihai onay verip vermeyece\u011fine odakland\u0131. \u0130ran anla\u015fmay\u0131 teyit etmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in belirsizlik y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, Tahran bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7i\u015fin kendi kontrol\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu savundu ve ABD, g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmadan a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Kanada\u2019da Statistics Canada, 1. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda GSYH\u2019nin %0,1 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (beklenti: %1,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme) bildirdi; b\u00f6ylece art arda ikinci \u00e7eyrekte daralma kaydedildi. Mart GSYH\u2019si ise \u015eubat\u2019taki %0,2 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,1 geriledi; beklenti de\u011fi\u015fim olmamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Ayr\u0131 olarak The Wall Street Journal, Trump y\u00f6netiminin USMCA\u2019da (ABD-Meksika-Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131) bir arac\u0131n bile\u015fenlerinin %50\u2019sinin ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilmesini zorunlu k\u0131lacak de\u011fi\u015fiklikler arayabilece\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kuzey Amerika\u2019dan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili ekonomik sinyallerin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde USD\/CAD paritesinin 1,3650 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda y\u00f6n arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kanada Dolar\u0131, son d\u00f6nemde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratan yurti\u00e7i verilerin ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Bu durum, ABD\u2019de daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve takip edilmesi gereken \u00f6nemli bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel endi\u015fe, Statistics Canada\u2019n\u0131n son raporunda 1. \u00e7eyrek y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yaln\u0131zca %1,2 gelerek %1,7\u2019lik piyasa beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmek zorunda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm CAD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik tansiyonun\u2014\u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fe ili\u015fkin risklerin\u2014azalmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yitiriyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te son zirvelerinden 104,75 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. Jeopolitik sakinlik s\u00fcrerse, bu durum dolar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek unsurunu ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in dikkat \u00e7ekici bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor; zira USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti. Fiyatlaman\u0131n ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisinin, g\u00f6rece g\u00fcvercinle\u015febilecek bir BoC ile daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir Fed aras\u0131ndaki artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu ortam, daha belirgin y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanabilen stratejiler (\u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan al\u0131m\/call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131) i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli.<\/p>\n
ABD-Meksika-Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131 (USMCA) kapsam\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 m\u00fczakerelere ili\u015fkin g\u00fcndemi de yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilebilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemlerin artmas\u0131, ani volatilite yaratabilir ve bu nedenle \u00f6nemli bir risk unsuru olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu temel belirsizlik, yeni pozisyonlarda riski daha net tan\u0131mlamak ad\u0131na opsiyon spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD, zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 ve artan \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentileriyle 1,3780\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Kanada GSYH daralmas\u0131 BoC indirimi ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken, USMCA revizyonu ve y\u00fckselen opsiyon volatilitesi riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}