Federal Reserve Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Michelle Bowman, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130zlanda\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen bir konferansta ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ilerlemenin duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bowman, enflasyon riskini Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011flayarak, sava\u015f\u0131n uzamas\u0131n\u0131n fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olma ihtimalini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; bununla birlikte tam ekonomik etkinin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 erken oldu\u011funu ekledi.<\/p>\n
Bowman, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fclse de ABD ekonomisini diren\u00e7li olarak nitelendirdi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde uzayan bir enerji \u015fokunun enflasyonu yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Bowman, sava\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f \u00e7apta yay\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ayarlamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini belirtti. Bowman, politika g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi korunabildi\u011fi s\u00fcrece Fed\u2019in bir enerji \u015fokunu \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelebilece\u011fini\u201d, ge\u00e7ici bir \u015foka tepki vermenin ise ekonomiyi gereksiz yere bask\u0131layabilece\u011fini savundu; ayr\u0131ca mevcut \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131\u201d duru\u015fun, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken istihdama destek olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. 29 Nisan tarihli politika metninde gev\u015feme e\u011filiminin korunmas\u0131n\u0131n uygun oldu\u011funu da ekleyen Bowman, yeniden de\u011ferlendirme yapmadan \u00f6nce daha fazla netlik istedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sona ermesinin enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fine dair iyimserli\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekme s\u00fcrecinde ilerlemenin duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn daha temkinli bir duru\u015f benimsemesini destekliyor. Son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi %3,2 ile \u00f6nceki iki aya k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, %2 hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yolunun ilk \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha uzun ve daha zorlu olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 kanal\u0131yla enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk konumunda. WTI ham petrol\u00fc volatil seyrederken, bu hafta H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 kesintilere dair endi\u015felerle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Tarihsel olarak bu b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, 1979\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve k\u00fcresel enflasyonu y\u0131llarca yukar\u0131 iten \u00f6rnekte oldu\u011fu gibi, kal\u0131c\u0131 petrol fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in zor bir tercihe i\u015faret ediyor; zira ABD ekonomisi de so\u011fuma sinyalleri veriyor. Son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileri, i\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 160 bine yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bir enerji \u015fokuna faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak tepki vermek, zaten k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 gereksiz yere zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda, volatilitenin yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, olas\u0131 bir enflasyon \u015foku ile yava\u015flayan i\u00e7 ekonomi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar\u0131 daha olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 gibi uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131na maruziyetimizi art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz indirimlerinin olas\u0131 olarak \u00f6telenmesini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde faiz t\u00fcrevlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarl\u0131yoruz. Piyasa gev\u015feme beklentilerini yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor; bir ay \u00f6nce %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcn %30\u2019un biraz alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f durumda. Faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanan opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa seviyesinin \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed \u00fcyesi Bowman, enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Fed, faiz indirimi i\u00e7in netlik ararken volatilite ve y\u00fcksek faiz senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47746","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47746\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}