GBP\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri alarak 213,59 ile g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 214,15 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan destek buldu. Bailey, ekonomideki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 \u015fokuna ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin, ge\u00e7ici olarak hedefin \u00fczerindeki enflasyona tolerans g\u00f6sterilmesini hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u015fok sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden beklenen faiz indirimlerinin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131yla politikan\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n
Yen, daha \u00f6nce Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama\u2019n\u0131n USD\/JPY 160\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Reuters, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 28 Nisan\u201327 May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde m\u00fcdahaleye 11,7349 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 73,6 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca ate\u015fkesi uzatacak ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir MOU\u2019ya ili\u015fkin haberleri izledi; bu geli\u015fme petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu, ancak anla\u015fma hen\u00fcz nihai de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Tokyo T\u00dcFE May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (Nisan: %1,5). G\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE ise %1,9\u2019dan %1,6\u2019ya gerileyerek Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin tonunu dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Sterlin\u2019de altta yatan g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. BoE politika faizinin %5,25\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 BoJ\u2019un %0,1 seviyesinde olmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan belirgin faiz fark\u0131, carry trade stratejisini destekliyor. Olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken potansiyel kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in GBP\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Japon otoritelerinin piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 son derece temkinli olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarih, bu hamlelerin ani ve sert oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te Japonya, para birimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 trilyon yen harcayarak USD\/JPY ve GBP\/JPY gibi paritelerde h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu ciddi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, riskten korunma amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve bunun petrol fiyatlar\u0131na etkisi, belirgin iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. Nihai bir anla\u015fma Yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilirken, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 muhtemelen Yen\u2019in daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na neden olur. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almay\u0131 i\u00e7eren uzun straddle stratejisiyle bu belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flem konusu yapabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, Bailey\u2019nin \u201cge\u00e7ici y\u00fcksek enflasyona tolerans\u201d mesaj\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken GBP\/JPY 214,15\u2019e toparland\u0131. Yen\u2019de m\u00fcdahale riski ve \u0130ran\/petrol belirsizli\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; call-put, OTM put ve straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47741\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}