Brent ve WTI d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n daha da alt\u0131na itti; piyasalar, K\u00f6rfez\u2019den bol arz beklentisini fiyatl\u0131yor. DBS Group Research, K\u00f6rfez\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in bekleyen yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.000 gemilik bir kuyruk oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti; bu dinamik petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin alt\u0131na gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakereler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. Man\u015fet enerji fiyatlar\u0131 so\u011fusa bile, rapor H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn aylar s\u00fcren kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel lojistik \u00fczerindeki yay\u0131lma etkilerinin \u015fimdiden ara mallara yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Brent \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 100 dolar seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Piyasa, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.000 geminin K\u00f6rfez\u2019den ayr\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00f6nden fiyatl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 85 dolar seviyesinin de alt\u0131na bir gerileme olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini, k\u00fcresel yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret eden son veriler de destekliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin son Caixin \u00c7in Genel \u0130malat PMI verisi beklentilerin aksine 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek daralmaya i\u015faret etti; bu durum, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gelen talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6te yandan ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 4,2 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek arz\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda talebi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alman\u0131n do\u011fru strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fc\u015fen fiyatlardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli kontratlarda put opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon da, kald\u0131ra\u00e7la rahat olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in uygulanabilir ancak daha y\u00fcksek riskli bir strateji.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2014\u2019te OPEC\u2019in \u00fcretimi k\u0131smama karar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 aylar boyunca a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi arz kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe \u00e7ok benziyor. Tarih, arz alg\u0131s\u0131 bu kadar negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yeni arz\u0131n piyasaya girmesiyle birlikte kal\u0131c\u0131 bir fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u0130ran\u2019la devam eden m\u00fczakereler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan istikrar konusunda dikkatli olmal\u0131y\u0131z. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ani bir kopu\u015f sert bir fiyat tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc tetikleyebilir ve \u00f6nemli bir short squeeze\u2019e yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle, risksizli\u011fi tan\u0131ml\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerinin (ay\u0131 put spread gibi) \u00e7\u0131plak k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya k\u0131yasla daha temkinli olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet enerji fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken dahi, enflasyon ve lojistik \u00fczerindeki ikincil etkileri izliyoruz. Aylar s\u00fcren sevkiyat aksamas\u0131, ara mallar\u0131n maliyetlerine \u015fimdiden yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu tablo, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 daha y\u00fcksek ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetleriyle m\u00fccadele eden sekt\u00f6rlerde i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: Brent 95 dolar civar\u0131nda, WTI 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. K\u00f6rfez\u2019de 2 bin gemilik arz kuyru\u011fu fiyatl\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f \u00c7in PMI ve y\u00fckselen ABD stoklar\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47739\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}