ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve yap\u0131\u015fkan PCE enflasyonu, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilerlemenin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekli tutuyor. Dolar endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131ld\u0131r 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu FOMC\u2019nin 2026 i\u00e7in %2,7\u2019lik projeksiyonunun \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Konut hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek hizmetler PCE Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5 ile ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek, Fed\u2019in %2,0 hedefine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle uyumlu h\u0131z\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow tahmini 2\u00c7 i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %3,8\u2019e \u00e7ekerek 21 May\u0131s g\u00fcncellemesindeki %4,3\u2019ten geriledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 trendin \u00fczerinde bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ediyor. May\u0131s PMI verileri de ABD\u2019nin benzer \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme avantaj\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, yakla\u015fan bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair haberler riskli varl\u0131klarda ralliyi tetiklerken, \u00e7er\u00e7evenin 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erdi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisindeki g\u00fcc\u00fc dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uzun s\u00fcredir a\u015f\u0131lamayan 100,00 tavan\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla 29 May\u0131s 2026\u2019da DXY yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,85 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek band\u0131n tam \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 test ediyor. ABD ekonomisinin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00fcst\u00fcn performans\u0131, jeopolitik rahatlaman\u0131n tam anlam\u0131yla dengeleyemeyece\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in eli, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon nedeniyle ba\u011fl\u0131 ve bu durum daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Son veriler, Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 ile %2,0 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde ve hatta Fed\u2019in y\u0131l i\u00e7in kendi %2,7\u2019lik projeksiyonunun da \u00fcst\u00fcnde geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; bu nedenle faizlerin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini yans\u0131tan SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyonlanma de\u011ferlendirmeye al\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi k\u00fcresel benzerlerinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde seyretmeye devam ederek dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n konumunu peki\u015ftiriyor. Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow modeli 2\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %3,8\u2019e indirse de, May\u0131s ay\u0131 S&P Global ABD Bile\u015fik PMI 54,4 ile iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131karak Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 51,9\u2019luk de\u011ferine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret etti. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, euroya kar\u015f\u0131 dolar lehine t\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerin\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD paritesinde put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n\u2014temellendirilebilir oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, ABD\u2019nin e\u015fanl\u0131 ekonomik \u00fcst\u00fcn performans\u0131 ve \u015fahin bir Fed d\u00f6nemleri, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne benzer \u015fekilde, kal\u0131c\u0131 dolar rallilerine zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, potansiyel yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in DXY \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. 100,00 seviyesinin yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 102,50 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilerleme risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirse de, bunu dolar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ikincil bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi ge\u00e7ici dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, daha avantajl\u0131 seviyelerden uzun pozisyon a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme gibi temel dinamikler, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn birincil ve daha kal\u0131c\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicileri olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\u2019da kritik e\u015fik: ABD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve yap\u0131\u015fkan \u00e7ekirdek PCE, Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutarak DXY\u2019yi 100,00 direncine ta\u015f\u0131yor. Risk rallisi ge\u00e7ici; 100 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 102,50 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47737"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47737\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}