Statistics Canada\u2019ya g\u00f6re Kanada\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019si 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7eyreklik bazda yatay seyretti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %0,2\u2019lik daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda \u00fcretim %0,1 gerilerken, piyasa %1,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyordu. \u00c7eyre\u011fin sonuna do\u011fru ivme de zay\u0131flad\u0131; GSYH martta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 darald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Verinin ard\u0131ndan Kanada dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. USD\/CAD paritesi, veriye ilk tepki olarak g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,25 y\u00fckselerek 1,3820\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada ekonomisinin duraksamas\u0131 nedeniyle, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) faiz patikas\u0131na dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc revize ediyoruz. Piyasa, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH\u2019nin negatif gelmesiyle haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakaland\u0131; bu sonu\u00e7, beklenen %1,5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Bu s\u00fcrpriz, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek amac\u0131yla para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015femeyi de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6stermeye devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CAD\u2019nin 1,3800\u2019in \u00fczerine yerle\u015fmesiyle, \u00f6zellikle faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n dolar lehine a\u00e7\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle 1,4000 seviyesine do\u011fru net bir patika g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2020\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi ekonomik performans\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde parite k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin sert \u015fekilde \u0131skalanmas\u0131, Kanada varl\u0131klar\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k halihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k %7\u2019den %8,5\u2019in \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi ve bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu belirsiz ortamda riski tan\u0131mlayarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc getiri potansiyeli elde etmek i\u00e7in USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir BoC beklentisini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda yeniden pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS) art\u0131k Banka\u2019n\u0131n temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu, ge\u00e7en hafta olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu seviyeden dramatik bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ve Kanada k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlarda f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Kanada ekonomisi i\u00e7in kilit bir belirleyici olan petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rleri izlememiz gerekiyor. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, k\u00fcresel talepte alg\u0131lanan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olas\u0131 ek bir geri \u00e7ekilme \u201cloonie\u201d \u00fczerindeki negatif hissiyat\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Emtia taraf\u0131ndaki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) tezimi\u0307zi\u0307 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: Kanada GSYH 1\u00c726\u2019da yatay, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015fta %0,1 darald\u0131; beklenti %1,5\u2019ti. CAD zay\u0131flad\u0131, USD\/CAD 1,3820. BoC\u2019de g\u00fcvercinle\u015fme, 1,40 hedefi, oynakl\u0131k ve petrol riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}