Kanada\u2019n\u0131n reel gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH) Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 gerileyerek %0\u2019l\u0131k piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, ayl\u0131k \u00fcretimin genel olarak yatay seyretti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonunda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, Mart i\u00e7in beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan daha zay\u0131f bir okumaya i\u015faret ediyor; %0,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, de\u011fi\u015fim olmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahminlerin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ayl\u0131k GSYH, k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin de\u011ferlendirilmesinde kilit bir girdi olup ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ili\u015fkin beklentileri \u015fekillendirebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrpriz -%0,1\u2019lik ekonomik daralma, \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz so\u011fuma e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. Bu veri, iki ay \u00f6ncesine ait olsa da Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7eyi belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Enflasyonda son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve %2,6\u2019ya gerilemeye i\u015faret eden veriler de, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131m atacak alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bunun, \u00f6zellikle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u015fahin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, Kanada dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde\u2014\u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda\u2014do\u011frudan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, para politikas\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemleri CAD\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; 2015\u2019te BoC faiz indirirken Fed\u2019in duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek g\u00f6sterilebilir. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde bekledi\u011fimiz trendden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla USD\/CAD paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Kanada faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini de cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; piyasa \u015fu anda BoC\u2019nin Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. D\u00fc\u015fen getiriler i\u00e7in pozisyon almak ad\u0131na \u00dc\u00e7 Ayl\u0131k Kanada Bankac\u0131lar Kabul\u00fc Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri (Three-Month Canadian Bankers\u2019 Acceptance Futures – BAX) gibi kontratlarda uzun pozisyon alman\u0131n de\u011fer sundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Zay\u0131f GSYH verisi, bu olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 daha da yukar\u0131 itebilecek kataliz\u00f6r niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise, yava\u015flayan ekonomi S&P\/TSX 60 endeksi i\u00e7in bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r; \u00f6zellikle bankalar ve ihtiyari t\u00fcketim hisseleri gibi faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. XIU gibi daha geni\u015f Kanada piyasas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lerde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde zay\u0131flayan \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kanada\u2019da Mart reel GSYH %0,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklenti s\u0131f\u0131rd\u0131. BoC\u2019ye faiz indirimi alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken, Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. USD\/CAD call, BAX long, TSX\u2019te put g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47732\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}