Kanada\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH) ilk \u00e7eyrekte %0,1 geriledi ve piyasalar\u0131n %1,5\u2019lik beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, y\u0131l\u0131n beklenenden daha zay\u0131f ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, ekonomistlerin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131yla da ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ile konsens\u00fcs tahmin aras\u0131ndaki bu sapma, k\u0131sa vadede i\u00e7 talebe ve ekonomik faaliyetin genel seyrine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeleri etkileyebilir. Takip eden verilerin daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit edip etmeyece\u011fi ya da bunun tek seferlik \u00e7eyreklik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc oldu\u011fu yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcrpriz ekonomik daralma, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re tart\u0131\u015fma art\u0131k faizi sabit tutmaktan bir sonraki faiz indiriminin zamanlamas\u0131na kayacak. Piyasa veriye haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakaland\u0131 ve bu sonu\u00e7, yaz bitmeden para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz indirimi ihtimalinin y\u00fckselmesiyle Kanada dolar\u0131nda (loonie) kayda de\u011fer bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. USD\/CAD paritesi haberle birlikte 1,3800 seviyesinin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu seviye \u00f6nemli bir teknik e\u015fik. Temmuz ve a\u011fustos vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n alarak loonie\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla Kanada devlet tahvillerinde de bir ralli bekliyoruz. Kanada 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisinin bu sabah 15 baz puan geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Kanada tahvillerinde vadeli i\u015flem (futures) s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri al\u0131yor, getirilerin daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kanada hisse senedi piyasas\u0131, ekonomide belirgin yava\u015flama sinyallerinin etkisiyle muhtemelen bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalacak. Olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in S&P\/TSX 60 endeksinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) al\u0131yoruz; resesyon endi\u015feleri \u00f6zellikle finans ve enerji gibi d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rleri daha sert vurabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki neredeyse kesin art\u0131\u015ftan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 da sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2015\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz s\u00fcrpriz ekonomik verileri and\u0131r\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nem Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n beklenmedik bir faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnekte Kanada dolar\u0131 sonraki alt\u0131 ay boyunca belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu yaz boyunca benzer, ancak muhtemelen daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131, bir e\u011filimin olu\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: Kanada 1\u00c7 GSYH y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %0,1 darald\u0131, beklenti %1,5\u2019in \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda. BoC\u2019de faiz indirimi fiyatlan\u0131yor; USD\/CAD 1,3800 \u00fcst\u00fc. Tahvil rallisi, TSX\u2019te bask\u0131, volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47730\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}