USD\/JPY, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n pariteyi 160,00 civar\u0131nda dizginlemek amac\u0131yla rekor d\u00fczeyde d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesinin ard\u0131ndan 159,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde belirgin bir trend olu\u015fturmadan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 28 Nisan\u201327 May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde bakanl\u0131k 11,735 trilyon yen sat\u0131n ald\u0131; bu, kay\u0131tlardaki en y\u00fcksek toplam al\u0131m olup 160,00 b\u00f6lgesi etraf\u0131nda fiili bir resmi tavan\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi 155,00 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00f6nlendirebilir. Ancak bu seviyenin anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sarkma muhtemelen daha \u015fahin bir Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) duru\u015fu gerektirecek; nitekim \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergeleri Nisan\u2019da yumu\u015fad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca belirgin bi\u00e7imde bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin rekor 11,7 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahalesi 160,00 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan olu\u015fturdu. Bu sert ad\u0131m, bu seviyenin \u00fczerindeki hareketlerin otoritelerden ciddi sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sert \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 160,00 ve \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) zararda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak veya ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri kurmak en mant\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015flem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite Nisan sonu 2026\u2019da %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinden bug\u00fcn %8,5\u2019in hemen alt\u0131na gerileyerek piyasan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa inanc\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu ortam, prim satmay\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
155,00\u2019a do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda yumu\u015fama ile destekleniyor. WTI ham petrol\u00fc son d\u00f6nemde \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerileyerek Japonya ekonomisindeki baz\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 hafifletti. Bu, yene s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir destek sa\u011flayabilir; ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
155,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda anlaml\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma daha agresif bir BoJ gerektirir; biz k\u0131sa vadede bunu beklemiyoruz. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin en g\u00fcncel \u201c\u00e7ekirdek-\u00e7ekirdek\u201d enflasyon verisi %1,8 ile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve hafif bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti. Bu da BoJ\u2019ye yakla\u015fan Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temkinli duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in alan tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, 2022 ve 2024\u2019teki benzer m\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, ana stratejimiz volatilite satarak band\u0131 i\u015flemeye dayan\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir s\u00fcz\u00fclmeye daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in 155,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 anda 160,00 tavan\u0131na yak\u0131n seviyelerden call sat\u0131yoruz. Bu yap\u0131, beklenen yatay fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 tavan\u0131 resmile\u015fti mi? Japonya 11,7 trilyon yenle rekor m\u00fcdahale yapt\u0131; parite bantta. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 155\u2019i g\u00fcndeme getiriyor, BoJ temkinli; strateji: volatilite sat\u0131p prim toplamak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47728"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47728\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}