G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi Nisan ay\u0131nda 15,16 milyar rand\u2019a gerileyerek bir \u00f6nceki aydaki 31,87 milyar rand seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Son veri, rand baz\u0131nda daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir fazla olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ederken, \u00f6nceki ayki iyile\u015fmenin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geri verildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ihracat gelirleri ile ithalat harcamalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n ay i\u00e7inde darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Denge pozitif kalmaya devam etse de, ihracat Mart ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla ithalat\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir marjla a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019n\u0131n ticaret fazlas\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Rand i\u00e7in belirgin bir \u201cay\u0131\u201d sinyali. \u00dclkeye giren ve ZAR\u2019a \u00e7evrilen dolar miktar\u0131 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bunun para birimini zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 20,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren USD\/ZAR paritesinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri test etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, \u00f6zellikle limanlardaki lojistik darbo\u011fazlar gibi, k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve demir cevheri ihracat\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratan kal\u0131c\u0131 yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Minerals Council verileri, demiryolu verimsizliklerinin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l d\u00f6kme emtia sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne 50 milyar rand\u0131n \u00fczerinde f\u0131rsat kayb\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Platin grubu metal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son zay\u0131fl\u0131k (y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) da ihracat de\u011ferlerini ilave bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha zay\u0131f bir Rand\u2019dan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Uzun USD\/ZAR vadeli (forward) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve Temmuz vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Bu opsiyonlar, paritenin 21,00 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine sert bir hareket potansiyeline maruz kalmak i\u00e7in maliyet-etkin bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Johannesburg Menkul K\u0131ymetler Borsas\u0131\u2019nda performans a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan net bir ayr\u0131\u015fma bekliyoruz. \u0130thalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u015firketlerde (\u00f6rne\u011fin perakendeciler ve marj bask\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fayacak yerli \u00fcreticiler) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131yoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, zay\u0131f kurdan fayda sa\u011flayan b\u00fcy\u00fck, dolar bazl\u0131 gelir \u00fcreten madencilik ve kaynak \u015firketlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ticaret verisi, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek \u015fekilde faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00fcney Afrika Merkez Bankas\u0131, para birimini savunmak ve ithal enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir tona y\u00f6nelmek zorunda kalabilir. Bu nedenle, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerde de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019n\u0131n ticaret fazlas\u0131 nisanda 15,16 milyar rand\u2019a indi. Lojistik darbo\u011fazlar, zay\u0131f emtia fiyatlar\u0131 Rand\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; USD\/ZAR\u2019da yukar\u0131 risk, t\u00fcrev ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47722\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}