Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP), may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,7 artarak piyasa beklentisi olan %2,8\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, enflasyonun ay i\u00e7in beklentilere k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gev\u015fedi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klama, may\u0131s ay\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k HICP oran\u0131n\u0131 piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, tahminlere g\u00f6re 0,1 puanl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sapma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Kaynak metinde ek bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ya da ilave rakam payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beklentinin alt\u0131nda gelen bu Almanya enflasyon verisi, Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u00e7ekirdek ekonomisinde fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (ECB) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmek i\u00e7in daha fazla alan sa\u011flayan kritik bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu veri noktas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil, faiz indirimi olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fczerinden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmal\u0131. Bu, faiz indirimi beklentileriyle tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ferken de\u011fer kazanan Euro-Bund vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. Son d\u00f6nemde ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %30 seviyesinde fiyatlayan swap piyasas\u0131n\u0131n da yeniden ayarlama yapmas\u0131 gerekecek; bu da bizim i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmenin kur piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da net yans\u0131malar\u0131 var; zira daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentileri genellikle para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Euro aleyhine opsiyonlarla pozisyon almak art\u0131k daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. EUR\/USD paritesi haftalard\u0131r 1,08 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor ve bu haber, pariteyi son d\u00f6nemdeki band\u0131n\u0131n alt k\u0131sm\u0131na itebilecek bir kataliz\u00f6r olabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda ise daha g\u00fcvercin bir ECB, \u015firketler i\u00e7in bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fi i\u00e7in hisse senetleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu bir sinyal. Bu kapsamda Alman DAX ve Euro Stoxx 50 gibi ba\u015fl\u0131ca Avrupa endekslerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) de\u011ferlendirmeyi planl\u0131yoruz. Avrupa imalat PMI verisi de son d\u00f6nemde 48,5\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler bu toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve hisse fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Almanya HICP may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 ile beklenti %2,8\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131: Enflasyonda gev\u015feme ECB\u2019ye faiz indirimi alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor. Tahvilde long, EUR\u2019da temkin, DAX\/EuroStoxx\u2019ta call f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47719\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}