Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (HICP) May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 gerileyerek %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Negatif veri, piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha zay\u0131f bir yak\u0131n vadeli fiyat momentumuna i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tahmin ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme aras\u0131ndaki fark, piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 0,3 puan oldu. May\u0131s sonucu, HICP\u2019in ayl\u0131k bazda daralma b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6stererek beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi tersine \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda enflasyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde -%0,1\u2019e gerilemesi, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinde kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne net bi\u00e7imde meydan okuyor. Bu veri, temel talebin bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f benimseme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n para birimi aleyhine hareket etmesi muhtemel oldu\u011fundan Euro\u2019da zay\u0131flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi man\u015fet enflasyonu Nisan 2026\u2019da %2,4\u2019e do\u011fru gerileme e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; Almanya verisi, May\u0131s rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da yumu\u015fak gelebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD paritesinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde 1,07 seviyesinin alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelen bir hareketi hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme, Avrupa devlet tahvillerinde\u2014\u00f6zellikle Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131nda\u2014bir ralli arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon, ECB\u2019nin y\u00fcksek faizleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak sabit getirili varl\u0131klar\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Getirilerin y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen dip seviyeleri yeniden test edebilece\u011fi ve %2,2 civar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle Alman 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (FGBL) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 olumlu bir kataliz\u00f6r. Alman hisselerinde f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 18.500 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda konsolide olan DAX endeksi, bile\u015fen \u015firketler i\u00e7in daha ucuz bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin etkisiyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ya\u015fayabilir. Yeni zirvelere do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir ralli i\u00e7in DAX \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi geneli HICP verileriyle teyit aramak da \u00f6nemli. B\u00f6lge genelinde benzer bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz, bu i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde do\u011frular. Bu tek Alman verisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131yla ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: Almanya HICP May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %-0,1! Beklentiyi 0,3 puan a\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ECB\u2019de g\u00fcvercin fiyatlamay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; Euro bask\u0131, Bund rallisi, DAX\u2019ta yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m senaryosu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47718\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}