Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %0,7 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.530 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; petrol\u00fcn ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir bar\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenlemesine y\u00f6nelik yenilenen umutlarla geri \u00e7ekilmesi, toparlanmay\u0131 uzatt\u0131. WTI, Axios\u2019un H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n neredeyse %20\u2019si i\u00e7in g\u00fczerg\u00e2h) \u201ck\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131z\u201d enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na izin verecek ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131racak 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131 (MoU) tasla\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan, be\u015f haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 86,30 dolar civar\u0131nda %1,6 geriledi; plan\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n onay\u0131 gerekiyor. Piyasalar, daha \u00f6nce y\u00fcksek petrol\u00fcn enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ilave Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na dair beklentileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %44\u2019e fiyatlan\u0131rken, bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %62 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Teknik olarak XAU\/USD, yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.572 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, 45 civar\u0131ndaki 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI zay\u0131f bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret ediyor. 4.572 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bir hareket, oda\u011f\u0131 15 May\u0131s zirvesi 4.665 dolara \u00e7evirirken; 28 May\u0131s dibi 4.366 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma 4.300 dolar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Goldman Sachs, Brent ve WTI\u2019\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar s\u0131ras\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 ve 75 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve ima edilen patikan\u0131n sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin neredeyse %30 \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n tek bir karara odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7evesine onay verip vermeyece\u011fi. Bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ikili (binary) bir olay yarat\u0131yor ve enflasyon beklentileri ile Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyecek. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda sert bir harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 4.530 dolar civar\u0131ndaki mevcut fiyat, anla\u015fman\u0131n nihai sonucunu yans\u0131tm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fma onaylan\u0131rsa, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini ve enflasyon endi\u015felerinin daha da hafiflemesini bekliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etmesiyle de destekleniyor. Enerji maliyetlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemden \u00e7\u0131karabilir ve getiri sa\u011flamayan alt\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip h\u00e2le getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoda, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.572 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik direncin yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon arar\u0131z. 4.600 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131, 4.665 dolar hedefine do\u011fru yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 maruz kalma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olumsuza d\u00f6nmesi h\u00e2linde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fman\u0131n reddedilmesi, jeopolitik riski h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlamaya sokar ve petrol\u00fc sert \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar h\u00e2l\u00e2 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar %44 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu olas\u0131l\u0131k b\u00f6yle bir durumda h\u0131zla y\u00fckselebilir. Daha \u015fahin bir Fed, dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen 4.366 dolardaki son deste\u011finin alt\u0131na itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu sonu\u00e7 i\u00e7in, 4.366 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, 4.300 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (GVZ) bu hafta y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve opsiyonlar\u0131n ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir hareketi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyoruz. Bu nedenle, hem call hem put alarak uygulanan straddle stratejisi, volatilitenin kendisini i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu yak\u0131n vadeli kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel taban g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 1\u00c7 raporuna g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek k\u00fcresel rezervlere ilave 290 ton daha ekledi. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 talep, politikaya duyarl\u0131 sert sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadede destekleyici bir zemin sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran MoU karar\u0131na kilitlenen piyasada petrol %1,6 d\u00fc\u015ferken alt\u0131n %0,7 y\u00fckseldi. Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentisi %44\u2019e indi. XAU\/USD 4.572 direnci, 4.366 deste\u011fi izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47712\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}