Hindistan\u2019\u0131n M3 para arz\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda %12 seviyesinde sabit kald\u0131. Veri, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek ay boyunca geni\u015f para arz\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Kaynakta daha fazla k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m veya ilave parasal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131. Bu nedenle g\u00fcncelleme, likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tek bir veri noktas\u0131 sunuyor; M3 May\u0131s\u2019ta %12\u2019de kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019da M3 para arz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek %12 seviyesinde yatay seyretmesini, sistemde kal\u0131c\u0131 ve bol likiditenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair bir i\u015faret olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, ekonomik aktiviteyi desteklerken enflasyon endi\u015felerini de art\u0131ran iki ucu keskin bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Mevcut ko\u015fullarda bu likiditenin \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede hisse de\u011ferlemelerini desteklemeye devam etmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fczeyde devam eden para arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (RBI) ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler, t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun Nisan 2026\u2019da %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek RBI\u2019nin tolerans band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ekonomiyi so\u011futmak amac\u0131yla bir sonraki para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda repo faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tahvil taraf\u0131nda, halihaz\u0131rda %7,15 seviyesinde bulunan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon ya da faiz hassas enstr\u00fcmanlarda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131yla y\u00fckselen getirilere y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Tarihsel olarak M3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler, \u00e7o\u011fu kez parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6ncesine denk gelmi\u015f ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha se\u00e7ici hale geliyor. Likidite destekleyici bir unsur olsa da olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri ile gayrimenkul ve kamu hizmetleri (utilities) gibi faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu nedenle oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden faydalanabilen bankalarda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na kayd\u0131r\u0131rken; piyasa genelindeki oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 daha geni\u015f Nifty 50 endeksinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla riskten korunmay\u0131 (hedge) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ise, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin Hindistan Rupisi\u2019ne (INR) destek sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (yield differential) art\u0131rarak Rupiyi yabanc\u0131 sermaye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha cazip hale getirebilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Rupi\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Hindistan\u2019da M3 para arz\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta %12\u2019de kald\u0131: bol likidite s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 artarken RBI\u2019de repo faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali y\u00fckseldi; tahvil getirileri yukar\u0131, hisselerde se\u00e7icilik; INR destek bulabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47710\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}