Euro, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; EUR\/USD son iki haftal\u0131k bant i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rken 1,1660 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Mutabakat zapt\u0131nda yer alan ABD\u2011\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin 60 g\u00fcn uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; ancak anla\u015fma h\u00e2l\u00e2 her iki h\u00fck\u00fcmetin onay\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Fransa\u2019dan gelen daha zay\u0131f veriler, 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019de daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken Fransa ve \u0130spanya\u2019da enflasyon beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretmeye devam etti. Almanya\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Nisan\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz bi\u00e7imde gerilerken, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019si daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Odak, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokuyla Mart ve Nisan\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc HICP verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD 1,1643 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 4 saatlik RSI 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken MACD hafif pozitifti, ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in 1,1660 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m gerekli. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde diren\u00e7 1,1720\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 1,1790 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; destek 1,1625\u2019te, devam\u0131nda 1,1575 ile 1,1505\u20131,1525 band\u0131nda izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun kritik 1,1660 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda tavan yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini ve son d\u00f6nemdeki bant i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Almanya May\u0131s ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verisi, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,6 ile beklentilerin bir miktar \u00fczerinde gelerek ECB\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki arg\u00fcman\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu da Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 kesimlerin umdu\u011fu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda potansiyel bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 cazip buluyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Haziran sonu vadeli 1,1650 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131p 1,1750 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak bir \u201cbull call spread\u201d olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, kilit direncin \u00fczerine olas\u0131 bir harekette tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle getiri elde etmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, ABD\u2019den gelen son ekonomik veriler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor; en son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu 210 binlik sa\u011flam bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Euro\u2019nun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015faramamas\u0131 durumunda parite, band\u0131n alt taraf\u0131 olan 1,1575 civar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden test edebilir. Bu nedenle, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Son iki haftadaki yatay fiyat hareketi, EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatiliteyi g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tuttu. Bu durum, Haziran ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 gibi potansiyel bir kataliz\u00f6r \u00f6ncesinde opsiyonlar\u0131n nispeten ucuz olmas\u0131 nedeniyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. 1,1660 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde volatilitede sert bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz; bu da uzun vega stratejilerinin lehine olur.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2011\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin temkinli kalmak da gerekiyor; zira s\u00fcre\u00e7 h\u00e2l\u00e2 onay a\u015famas\u0131nda ve kolayl\u0131kla bozulabilir. Jeopolitik rahatlama rallileri k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabiliyor; t\u0131pk\u0131 2019\u2019da ticaret gerilimlerinde ilk yumu\u015fama d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve birka\u00e7 kez ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z denemeyle sonu\u00e7lanan hareketler gibi. Bu temel risk, t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve tek bir y\u00f6nsel senaryoda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD, 1,1660 alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri dolar\u0131 desteklerken Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon sinyalleri ve Almanya HICP kritik. K\u0131r\u0131lmada 1,1720-1,1790 hedef; opsiyonla strateji.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47707\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}