Piyasalar, ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flarken Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu durum, Fed belirsizli\u011finin g\u00f6lgesinde EUR\/USD paritesini destekliyor. 16\u201317 Haziran\u2019daki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131, Nisan\u2019da komitenin Fed Fonlama Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 4 oy verdi\u011fi karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh i\u00e7in erken bir test olacak; bu oylamada bir \u00fcye 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimini desteklerken \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201d dilinin korunmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fme olarak Christine Lagarde, merkez bankas\u0131 i\u00e7 yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 risk alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler daha net; piyasalar en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bahislerini ECB\u2019nin, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) bir sonraki toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tutuyor. Kur taraf\u0131nda DBS, DXY Endeksi\u2019ni k\u0131sa vadede kritik bir e\u015fik olarak i\u015faret ederek 98\u2019in alt\u0131na bir hareketin EUR\/USD\u2019yi yeniden 1,18\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini belirtti. Bu haber, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131n\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmininde enflasyonun %2,4\u2019te kalarak bankan\u0131n hedefinin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011finin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle, ECB\u2019nin 11 Haziran\u2019daki yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmeye haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Euro\u2019nun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019in b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. ABD\u2019de Nisan ay\u0131 ISM \u0130malat PMI verisinin beklentilerin aksine 49,8\u2019e gerilemesi gibi son ekonomik sinyaller, politikay\u0131 daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya mesafeli duran komite \u00fcyelerini destekliyor. Fed i\u00e7indeki bu tart\u0131\u015fma, 17 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bankan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d pozisyonunu koruyaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinin, ECB\u2019nin gelecek ay 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131na %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k atfetti\u011fini; bu kanaatin de son haftalarda istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini not ediyoruz. Bu yayg\u0131n beklenti, mevcut kur hareketlerinin temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc konumunda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, EUR\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesine i\u015faret ediyor. 1,1800 seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n cazip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; DXY Endeksi\u2019nde 98\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkma, Euro\u2019da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketi tetikleyebilir. Y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini korurken prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak da bir di\u011fer strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00f6nce, ancak ters y\u00f6nde ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. 2022\u2019de Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc, ECB\u2019nin geride kalmas\u0131yla DXY\u2019yi 110\u2019un belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f ve EUR\/USD\u2019yi pariteye yakla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi ise bu \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 e\u011filimin tersine d\u00f6nmesinin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na tan\u0131kl\u0131k ediyor olabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar zay\u0131flarken piyasa ECB\u2019den 11 Haziran\u2019da 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %90+ fiyatl\u0131yor; b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f Fed \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de yak\u0131n. DXY 98 alt\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,18 \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}