Euro, Japon yetkililerin JPY piyasalar\u0131ndaki spek\u00fclatif hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131da bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini bozdu. EUR\/JPY 185,65 civar\u0131ndaki seans zirvesinden gerileyerek 185,00 d\u00fczeylerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, yine de \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fine do\u011fru ilerledi. Japonya Kabine Sekreteri Minor Kihara, yendeki spek\u00fclatif hareketlerden \u201cson derece endi\u015feli\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve belirli bir kur seviyesine at\u0131fta bulunmadan, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda uygun ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
Yendeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) getirilerinin getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131 ve carry trade ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesiyle besleniyor. Japonya\u2019da May\u0131s Tokyo T\u00dcFE\u2019si gerilerken, sanayi \u00fcretimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Fransa\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019si 1. \u00e7eyrekte beklentilere paralel daral\u0131rken, May\u0131s enflasyonu Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) %2 hedefinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; seans\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde Almanya T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH ve T\u00dcFE verileri bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin son d\u00f6nemdeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131, uzun EUR\/JPY pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in net bir uyar\u0131 i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u201cSpek\u00fclatif hareketler\u201de y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zl\u00fc endi\u015fe, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi \u00f6ncesindeki ilk ad\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve belirgin bir k\u0131sa vadeli risk yarat\u0131yor. Bu da paritenin istikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015finin ani ve sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale tehdidini ciddiye almak gerekiyor; zira Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m ge\u00e7mi\u015fi bulunuyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, otoritelerin 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in rekor d\u00fczeyde yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 trilyon yen harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da uyar\u0131lar\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda benzer bir ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni olan faiz fark\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck u\u00e7urum de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili getirisi %1\u2019in hemen \u00fczerindeyken, e\u015fde\u011fer Alman tahvili %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde getiri sunuyor; bu ortamda yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p euro almak k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir strateji olmaya devam ediyor. Bu temel \u201ccarry trade\u201d dinami\u011fi, uzun vadede EUR\/JPY paritesini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Yen \u00fczerindeki ek bask\u0131, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131yla geliyor; bu durum, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Japonya i\u00e7in maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,4 seviyesinde seyrediyor ve bu da ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerinde aceleci olmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, uzun vadeli trend yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131rken, k\u0131sa vadede sert bir sat\u0131\u015f riskinin olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu zorlu bir denge ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Japon yetkililerin spek\u00fclasyon uyar\u0131s\u0131 EUR\/JPY\u2019de 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ralliyi bitirdi: 185,65\u2019ten 185\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Carry trade ve faiz fark\u0131 trendi desteklerken, m\u00fcdahale riski k\u0131sa vadede sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}