Alt\u0131n, 27 Mart\u2019tan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi test etmesinin ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 ikinci g\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131yarak Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde XAU\/USD\u2019yi 4.525 dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckseltti. Kazan\u00e7lar, piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisine ili\u015fkin ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 tartmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131: Axios, iki ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde taslak bir anla\u015fman\u0131n ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Ham petrol\u00fcn ayl\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretmesi, arz kesintisi riskine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri azalt\u0131rken, bunun da ilave faiz s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi\u011fi; rezerv varl\u0131k olarak ABD dolar\u0131na talepteki yumu\u015faman\u0131n ise k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131na bir miktar destek verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte ihtiyatl\u0131 duru\u015f korundu; zira teklifin Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n onay\u0131n\u0131 gerektirdi\u011fi, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusunda soru i\u015faretlerinin devam etti\u011fi belirtildi. ABD dolar\u0131 ayr\u0131ca daha s\u0131cak enflasyon verilerinden destek buldu: BEA verilerine g\u00f6re PCE Fiyat Endeksi nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek PCE %3,3 ile beklentiye paralel geldi. 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %2,0\u2019den %1,6\u2019ya revize edildi; CME FedWatch ise 2026\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.627,51 dolar\u0131n ve 4.667,32 dolar civar\u0131ndaki direncin alt\u0131nda; destekler 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.405,20 dolar ve kanal taban\u0131 4.348,84 dolar seviyelerinde izlenirken, RSI 42 civar\u0131nda, MACD ise negatif b\u00f6lgede.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00f6n tahminini riskli k\u0131lan, z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k yarat\u0131rken, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hik\u00e2ye Fed\u2019in enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelesi olmaya devam ediyor. Bu dinami\u011fin alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bir bant i\u00e7inde tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik opsiyon piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yor: 3 ay vadeli alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite ge\u00e7en ayki %14\u2019l\u00fck dip seviyeden %17,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n keskin bir hareket ihtimalini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun da muhtemelen \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bozulmas\u0131 ya da beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir makro veriyle tetiklenebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Son CFTC raporu da hedge fonlar\u0131n net-uzun pozisyonda kalmaya devam etti\u011fini, ancak son d\u00f6rt haftada y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor; bu da artan temkinlili\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, ya b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan ya da yatay bir d\u00f6nemden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u201cStrangle\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 \u2014para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) bir al\u0131m (call) ve sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonunun birlikte sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131\u2014 jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n mevcut banttan bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 halinde getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, hareketin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmek zorunda kalmadan artan oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Fed\u2019in duru\u015funun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeysek, kritik 4.600 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde \u201ccall spread\u201d satmak gelir yaratman\u0131n bir yolunu sunuyor. Bu tablo 2022\u2019yi and\u0131r\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri, jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczenli olarak bast\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Benzer bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc \u015fimdi de olu\u015fuyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda teknik seviyeleri rehber olarak kullanaca\u011f\u0131z. 4.405 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama kritik bir taban; bunun alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) pozisyonlar ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. O zamana kadar alt\u0131n\u0131n dalgal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131ndan ziyade faiz beklentileri ile dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcne daha duyarl\u0131 hareket etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck tepki: XAU\/USD 4.525$\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes tasla\u011f\u0131 ve dipteki petrol kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. PCE enflasyonu dolar\u0131 desteklerken teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; 4.405$ kritik destek, volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47691\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}