ABD dolar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stererek, bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce 0,7900 civar\u0131nda tutunamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,7830\u2019un \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Axios\u2019un, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzatmaya y\u00f6nelik bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 (MoU) bulundu\u011funu bildirmesi sonras\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 iyile\u015fti. Ancak metin h\u00e2l\u00e2 Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n imzas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu geli\u015fme, g\u00fcvenli liman dolara olan talebi azaltarak bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletti.<\/p>\n
ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi verisinin destekleyici gelmesi Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutsa da, jeopolitik rahatlama dolar \u00fczerindeki etkiyi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin KOF \u00d6nc\u00fc G\u00f6stergesi ise Nisan\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken piyasa etkisi zay\u0131f kald\u0131. USD\/CHF 0,7839 seviyesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kanal i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 4 saatlik RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 43\u2019te seyrederken MACD histogram\u0131nda geni\u015fleyen k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7ubuklar izlendi. Ay\u0131lar 0,7800 \u00fczerindeki deste\u011fi takip ediyor; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 0,7760 civar\u0131 ve kanal taban\u0131 0,7755 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 0,7900\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 0,7930 civar\u0131nda; 0,8000 \u00fczerindeki Nisan ba\u015f\u0131 zirveleri \u00f6ncesinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,9050 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yak\u0131n zamanda a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da genellikle g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lar. Piyasalar \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyalleri sindirirken paritede bir \u00e7eki\u015fme ortam\u0131 olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc, Fed\u2019in beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisi inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %2,8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini masadan uzak tuttu. Di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131ndan ayr\u0131\u015fan bu politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, USD\u2019yi destekleyen temel unsurlardan biri.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) cephesinde tablo farkl\u0131; yurti\u00e7i enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yaln\u0131zca %1,4 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. SNB, Mart 2026\u2019da faiz indirimiyle piyasalar\u0131 zaten \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve biz bu yaz bir indirimin daha gelebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, daha y\u00fcksek getirili dolara k\u0131yasla \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CHF\u2019de kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz. Bo\u011fa call spread, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in riskin tan\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu cazip bir pozisyonlanma y\u00f6ntemi. Strateji, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call opsiyonu almay\u0131 ve pozisyonu finanse etmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir ba\u015fka call opsiyonu satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir.<\/p>\n
Bu modeli daha \u00f6nce 2022-2024 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 SNB\u2019nin daha temkinli duru\u015fuyla birle\u015ferek paritede kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralliye yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Para politikas\u0131nda benzer, ancak daha az dramatik bir ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde ilk diren\u00e7, paritenin ge\u00e7en hafta a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 0,9150 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunun \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, psikolojik \u00f6nemi y\u00fcksek 0,9200 seviyesinin test edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde ise ilk deste\u011fin 0,9000 e\u015fi\u011fi civar\u0131nda olu\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\/frankta y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi MoU haberi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. PCE Fed\u2019i destekliyor, SNB indirime yak\u0131n. Teknikte 0,7800 destek; 0,7900 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}